{ "meta": { "version": 5, "row_count": 250, "plottable_count": 202, "unique_people": 140, "tier_counts": { "T2": 68, "T1": 68, "T4": 30, "T3": 42, "T5": 42 }, "year_category_counts": { "single": 115, "range": 57, "by_year": 18, "meta": 3, "never_or_rejection": 6, "unspecified": 28, "unparseable": 10, "after_year": 12, "framework": 1 }, "source": "v1 (compass) + v2-batch1 + v3-batch2 + v4-batch3 (CSV, 2026-04-29) + v5-fixes (recategorization)", "schema": { "person": "name as cited", "role": "role at time of statement", "verbatim": "true=verbatim quote, false=paraphrase", "quote_text": "the quote or paraphrase", "date_said": "raw date string from source", "year_said": "integer year when statement was made (parsed)", "predicted_year_raw": "raw predicted year string", "year_low": "lower bound of predicted year (or null)", "year_high": "upper bound of predicted year (or null)", "year_mid": "midpoint for plotting (or null)", "year_category": "single|range|by_year|after_year|never_or_rejection|unspecified|meta", "concept": "term used (AGI, HLMI, Singularity, etc.)", "source_type": "Paper/Book/Tweet/Podcast/Talk/etc.", "source_title": "name of source", "confidence": "stated probability or confidence", "tier": "T1-T5 reliability tier", "category": "frontier-lab|academic|tech-exec|public-intellectual|survey-aggregate", "notes": "additional context", "source_batch": "v1 | v2-batch1 | ... — provenance label", "prediction_type": "agi_year | task_year | agi_level — kind of forecast row", "task": "task name (only for prediction_type=task_year)", "task_complexity": "complexity tier (only for prediction_type=task_year)", "agi_level": "0-5 (only for prediction_type=agi_level)", "agi_level_name": "level designation (only for prediction_type=agi_level)", "source_url": "URL of source document", "verified_level": "high | medium | low — confidence in primary-source verification", "source_quality": "primary | news report | secondary | synthesis | survey", "stance_category": "optimist | skeptic | safety-aware | aggregate | etc.", "include_in_average": "bool — should this row count toward median/mean (excludes definitions, milestones, task-specific, framework rows)", "organization": "company/institution at time of statement", "expert_type": "free-text role classification (CSV-supplied)", "claim_summary": "summary of the claim if quote not verbatim", "csv_id": "stable id from CSV (only for v4-batch3 rows)" }, "batches": [ "v1", "v2-batch1", "v3-batch2", "v4-batch3", "v5-fixes" ], "prediction_type_counts": { "agi_year": 237, "task_year": 7, "agi_level": 6 }, "include_in_average_count": 187, "verified_level_counts": { "medium": 233, "high": 8, "low": 9 }, "median_predicted_year_modern": 2030, "mean_predicted_year_modern": 2036.4 }, "rows": [ { "person": "Alan Turing", "role": "Mathematician, Univ. Manchester", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"I believe that in about fifty years' time it will be possible to programme computers ... to play the imitation game so well that an average interrogator will not have more than 70 percent chance of making the right identification after five minutes of questioning.\"", "date_said": "1950", "year_said": 1950, "predicted_year_raw": "2000", "year_low": 2000, "year_high": 2000, "year_mid": 2000, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Imitation game (de facto human-level AI)", "source_type": "Paper", "source_title": "\"Computing Machinery and Intelligence\", Mind", "confidence": "70% pass rate", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Often cited as the first dated HLAI prediction; substantially missed for \"general\" AI", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Herbert Simon", "role": "CMU economist/AI pioneer", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"Machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do.\"", "date_said": "1965", "year_said": 1965, "predicted_year_raw": "1985", "year_low": 1985, "year_high": 1985, "year_mid": 1985, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Human-level work-capable machine", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "The Shape of Automation for Men and Management", "confidence": "High confidence (declarative)", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1 (then)", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Famously failed; cited as cautionary tale", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Marvin Minsky", "role": "MIT AI Lab", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"Within a generation ... the problem of creating 'artificial intelligence' will substantially be solved.\"", "date_said": "1967", "year_said": 1967, "predicted_year_raw": "~1990", "year_low": 1990, "year_high": 1990, "year_mid": 1990, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Artificial intelligence (general)", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "Computation: Finite and Infinite Machines", "confidence": "High confidence", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1 (then)", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Failed", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Marvin Minsky", "role": "MIT AI Lab", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"In from three to eight years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being.\"", "date_said": "1970", "year_said": 1970, "predicted_year_raw": "1973–1978", "year_low": 1973, "year_high": 1978, "year_mid": 1975, "year_category": "range", "concept": "General intelligence", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "Life Magazine", "confidence": "High confidence", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1 (then)", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Famously failed", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Herbert Simon & Allen Newell", "role": "CMU", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"Within ten years a digital computer will be the world's chess champion.\"", "date_said": "1958", "year_said": 1958, "predicted_year_raw": "1968", "year_low": 1968, "year_high": 1968, "year_mid": 1968, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Chess (proxy for AI)", "source_type": "Paper", "source_title": "\"Heuristic Problem Solving\"", "confidence": "High confidence", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1 (then)", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Took until 1997 (Deep Blue)", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "I.J. Good", "role": "Mathematician, Trinity College", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"It is more probable than not that... an ultraintelligent machine will be built in the twentieth century.\"", "date_said": "1965", "year_said": 1965, "predicted_year_raw": "<2000", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2000, "year_mid": 2000, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "Ultraintelligent machine", "source_type": "Paper", "source_title": "\"Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine\"", "confidence": ">50%", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Failed for the century; coined intelligence-explosion idea", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "John McCarthy", "role": "Stanford AI", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Believed human-level AI accomplishable but said a date \"cannot accurately be predicted.\"", "date_said": "2007", "year_said": 2007, "predicted_year_raw": "Refused to predict", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "meta", "concept": "Human-level AI", "source_type": "Essay", "source_title": "\"What is Artificial Intelligence?\"", "confidence": "N/A", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Notable for explicit refusal", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Hubert Dreyfus", "role": "Philosopher, UC Berkeley", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Argued AI as conceived would never achieve human-level intelligence; the project would fail.", "date_said": "1972", "year_said": 1972, "predicted_year_raw": "Never (under symbolic paradigm)", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "never_or_rejection", "concept": "Strong AI", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "What Computers Can't Do", "confidence": "Strong negative", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "Historic skeptic; partially vindicated re: GOFAI", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Hans Moravec", "role": "CMU Robotics Institute", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"Robots will match human intelligence in just 40 years\" / by 2040 will outperform humans in all jobs; surpass us by 2050.", "date_said": "1998", "year_said": 1998, "predicted_year_raw": "2040", "year_low": 2040, "year_high": 2040, "year_mid": 2040, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Human-level robot intelligence", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind", "confidence": "High confidence", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Influential bio-anchors precursor", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Hans Moravec", "role": "CMU Robotics Institute", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Predicted human-equivalent computing power available in supercomputers by 2010 if trends continued.", "date_said": "1988", "year_said": 1988, "predicted_year_raw": "2010 (compute parity)", "year_low": 2010, "year_high": 2010, "year_mid": 2010, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Computational equivalence", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "Mind Children", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Compute parity argument", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Vernor Vinge", "role": "SDSU mathematician/SF author", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly thereafter, the human era will be ended ... I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.\"", "date_said": "1993", "year_said": 1993, "predicted_year_raw": "2005–2030 (centered ~2023)", "year_low": 2005, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2017, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Singularity / superhuman intelligence", "source_type": "Paper/Talk", "source_title": "\"The Coming Technological Singularity\" (NASA VISION-21)", "confidence": "\"Surprised\" if outside range (~80%)", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "Coined modern Singularity term", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Vernor Vinge", "role": "SDSU emeritus", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"I'd personally be surprised if it hadn't happened by 2030.\"", "date_said": "2009", "year_said": 2009, "predicted_year_raw": "by 2030", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "Singularity", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "h+ Magazine", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "Reaffirmed 1993 estimate", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Ray Kurzweil", "role": "Inventor/futurist", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"By 2029, computers will have human-level intelligence.\"", "date_said": "1999", "year_said": 1999, "predicted_year_raw": "2029", "year_low": 2029, "year_high": 2029, "year_mid": 2029, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Human-level AI / Turing Test", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "The Age of Spiritual Machines", "confidence": "High confidence", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "First made 1999, restated annually", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Ray Kurzweil", "role": "Inventor/futurist", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"I set the date for the Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability—as 2045.\"", "date_said": "2005", "year_said": 2005, "predicted_year_raw": "2045", "year_low": 2045, "year_high": 2045, "year_mid": 2045, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Singularity", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "The Singularity Is Near", "confidence": "High confidence", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "Most-cited specific singularity date", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Ray Kurzweil", "role": "Director of Engineering, Google", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"Artificial intelligence will achieve human-level intelligence by 2029.\"", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2029", "year_low": 2029, "year_high": 2029, "year_mid": 2029, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI / human-level", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "Abundance Summit AMA", "confidence": "High confidence (reaffirmed)", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "Restated even after GPT-4 era", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Ray Kurzweil", "role": "Google", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "2045 singularity date reaffirmed; humans merge with AI", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2045", "year_low": 2045, "year_high": 2045, "year_mid": 2045, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Singularity", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "The Singularity Is Nearer", "confidence": "High confidence", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "Sequel to 2005 book", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Nick Bostrom", "role": "Oxford FHI", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "\"We will have superhuman artificial intelligence within the first third of the next century.\"", "date_said": "1998", "year_said": 1998, "predicted_year_raw": "<2033", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2033, "year_mid": 2033, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "Superintelligence", "source_type": "Paper", "source_title": "\"How long before superintelligence?\"", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "Early Bostrom", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Nick Bostrom", "role": "Oxford FHI", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Median expert estimate ~2040–2050 for HLMI (Müller & Bostrom survey synthesis).", "date_said": "2014", "year_said": 2014, "predicted_year_raw": "2040–2050 (synthesis)", "year_low": 2040, "year_high": 2050, "year_mid": 2045, "year_category": "range", "concept": "HLMI", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies", "confidence": "Aggregated", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "Foundational synthesis", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Eliezer Yudkowsky", "role": "MIRI/SIAI", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "~2001 belief that small team could \"reach transhumanity\" between 2005–2020, \"probably around 2008 or 2010.\"", "date_said": "2001", "year_said": 2001, "predicted_year_raw": "2008–2010", "year_low": 2008, "year_high": 2010, "year_mid": 2009, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Transhuman/superintelligent AI", "source_type": "Internal/web", "source_title": "Singularity Institute writings", "confidence": "High then", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "Acknowledged as overconfident in retrospect", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Eliezer Yudkowsky", "role": "MIRI", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Now timeline-agnostic but assigns ≥90–99% p(doom); in 2023 Time op-ed implied AGI imminent enough to warrant emergency action.", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "\"imminent\" / soon", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI / superintelligence", "source_type": "Op-ed", "source_title": "\"Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut It All Down\" (Time)", "confidence": "p(doom) ~99%", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "Doomerism", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Shane Legg", "role": "DeepMind co-founder", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"I've decided to once again leave my prediction for when human level AGI will arrive unchanged. That is, I give it a log-normal distribution with a mean of 2028 and a mode of 2025.\"", "date_said": "2011", "year_said": 2011, "predicted_year_raw": "mode 2025 / mean 2028", "year_low": 2025, "year_high": 2028, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Human-level AGI", "source_type": "Blog", "source_title": "Vetta Project", "confidence": "50% by 2028", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "First public 2028 prediction", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Shane Legg", "role": "DeepMind Chief AGI Scientist", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"I think there's a 50% chance that we have AGI by 2028.\"", "date_said": "2023-10", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2028", "year_low": 2028, "year_high": 2028, "year_mid": 2028, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "Dwarkesh Patel", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Reaffirmed", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Shane Legg", "role": "Google DeepMind", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"I've publicly held the same prediction since 2009: there's a 50% chance we'll see #AGI by 2028.\"", "date_said": "2025-12-11", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2028", "year_low": 2028, "year_high": 2028, "year_mid": 2028, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Tweet", "source_title": "@ShaneLegg / X", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "16-year consistency", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Demis Hassabis", "role": "DeepMind CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI on a 5-to-10-year timescale (i.e., 2030–2035), 50% chance", "date_said": "2025-04", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2030–2035", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2035, "year_mid": 2032, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "CBS News", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Most-cited recent Hassabis number", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Demis Hassabis", "role": "DeepMind CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"10 times the impact of the Industrial Revolution, but happening at ten times the speed — probably unfolding in a decade rather than a century.\"", "date_said": "2026", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "within decade", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unparseable", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "India AI Impact Summit 2026", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Reaffirmed mid-decade timeline", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Demis Hassabis", "role": "DeepMind CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"It's going to be 5 to 10 years away\" with 50% probability", "date_said": "2025-03", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2030–2035", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2035, "year_mid": 2032, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "DeepMind HQ briefing", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Demis Hassabis", "role": "DeepMind CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "5-to-10-year timeline; \"we are quite close\"", "date_said": "2024-Oct", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2029–2034", "year_low": 2029, "year_high": 2034, "year_mid": 2031, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "Axios w/ Mike Allen", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Sam Altman", "role": "OpenAI CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "\"Development of superhuman machine intelligence is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity.\"", "date_said": "2015", "year_said": 2015, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified, near-term framing", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "Superhuman MI", "source_type": "Essay", "source_title": "\"Machine Intelligence\" (samaltman.com)", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Early SAI framing", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Sam Altman", "role": "OpenAI CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"I think AGI will probably get developed during [Trump's] term.\"", "date_said": "2025-01", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2025–2029", "year_low": 2025, "year_high": 2029, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "Bloomberg", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Trump's term = 2025-01 to 2029-01", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Sam Altman", "role": "OpenAI CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it.\"", "date_said": "2025-01-05", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "≤2025–2026 implied", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2026, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Blog", "source_title": "\"Reflections\" (samaltman.com)", "confidence": "High", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Confidence statement", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Sam Altman", "role": "OpenAI CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I'm confident we'll get there.\"", "date_said": "2024-09-23", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "~2030–2034", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2034, "year_mid": 2032, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Superintelligence", "source_type": "Blog", "source_title": "\"The Intelligence Age\"", "confidence": "\"Confident\"", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "\"Few thousand days\" ≈ 5–9 yrs", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Sam Altman", "role": "OpenAI CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"My guess is we will hit AGI sooner than most people in the world think and it will matter much less.\"", "date_said": "2024-12", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "<2030 implied", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "Bloomberg", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Soft timeline", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Sam Altman", "role": "OpenAI CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"We are beginning to turn our aim beyond [AGI], to superintelligence in the true sense of the word.\"", "date_said": "2025-01", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "post-2025", "year_low": 2025, "year_high": null, "year_mid": 2025, "year_category": "after_year", "concept": "Superintelligence", "source_type": "Blog", "source_title": "\"Reflections\"", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Pivot statement", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Greg Brockman", "role": "OpenAI President", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Endorsed the company line that AGI is plausibly achievable this decade.", "date_said": "2023-11", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2025–2030", "year_low": 2025, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Tweet", "source_title": "@gdb", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Ilya Sutskever", "role": "OpenAI co-founder/Chief Scientist", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"At some point we really will have AGI. Maybe OpenAI will build it. Maybe some other company will build it.\"", "date_said": "2023-10", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified, \"coming\"", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "MIT Technology Review", "confidence": "High confidence in eventuality", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Soft timeline", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Ilya Sutskever", "role": "SSI CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI will arrive within 5–20 years; superintelligence \"within reach\"; new \"age of research.\"", "date_said": "2025-11", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2030–2045", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2045, "year_mid": 2037, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI / superintelligence", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "Dwarkesh Patel", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Post-OpenAI public statement", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Dario Amodei", "role": "Anthropic CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"I think it could come as early as 2026, though there are also ways it could take much longer.\"", "date_said": "2024-10", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2026+", "year_low": 2026, "year_high": null, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "after_year", "concept": "\"Powerful AI\" (≈AGI)", "source_type": "Essay", "source_title": "\"Machines of Loving Grace\"", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "\"Powerful AI\" = his preferred term", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Dario Amodei", "role": "Anthropic CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Powerful AI 1-2 years away from \"country of geniuses in a datacenter\" by ~2027.", "date_said": "2026-01", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2027", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2027, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Powerful AI / \"country of geniuses\"", "source_type": "Essay", "source_title": "\"The Adolescence of Technology\"", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Updated MoLG view", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Dario Amodei", "role": "Anthropic CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI/powerful AI by 2026 or 2027; reiterated at WEF Davos 2026", "date_said": "2026-01", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2026–2027", "year_low": 2026, "year_high": 2027, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Powerful AI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "World Economic Forum, Davos", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Dario Amodei", "role": "Anthropic CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Senate testimony — powerful AI \"within two to three years\"", "date_said": "2023-07", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2025–2026", "year_low": 2025, "year_high": 2026, "year_mid": 2025, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Powerful AI", "source_type": "Congressional", "source_title": "US Senate Judiciary Subcommittee", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Cited by Veracalloway", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Anthropic (corporate)", "role": "Anthropic Policy", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"We expect powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.\"", "date_said": "2025-03", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "late 2026–early 2027", "year_low": 2026, "year_high": 2027, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Powerful AI", "source_type": "Submission", "source_title": "OSTP AI Action Plan submission", "confidence": "Official corporate forecast", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Strong corporate position", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Jack Clark", "role": "Anthropic Co-founder/Policy", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Reaffirmed Anthropic's powerful-AI-by-2027 view as company position.", "date_said": "2025-09", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2027", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2027, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Powerful AI", "source_type": "Talk/Interview", "source_title": "Various", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Mustafa Suleyman", "role": "Microsoft AI CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"Achieving human-level performance at most tasks ... feels quite likely in the next five years.\"", "date_said": "2025-11-14", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "~2030", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Human-level AI on most knowledge tasks", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "Silicon Valley Girl", "confidence": "\"Quite likely\"", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Defines AGI as ≈ \"professional-grade\"", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Mustafa Suleyman", "role": "Microsoft AI CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Most professional tasks fully automated within 12-18 months.", "date_said": "2025-Q3", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2026–2027", "year_low": 2026, "year_high": 2027, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Professional-grade AGI", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "Financial Times", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Mustafa Suleyman", "role": "DeepMind co-founder", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "In The Coming Wave argued transformative AI will reshape every industry within \"the next several years\"; he didn't put a specific year on AGI but framed the wave as imminent.", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2025–2030 (implied)", "year_low": 2025, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Transformative AI / \"coming wave\"", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "The Coming Wave", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Geoffrey Hinton", "role": "UofT/Google (resigned May 2023)", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"I thought it was 30 to 50 years or even longer away. Obviously, I no longer think that.\"", "date_said": "2023-05", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "shorter than 30y", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unparseable", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "New York Times", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Famous update", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Geoffrey Hinton", "role": "Independent", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"I now predict 5 to 20 years but without much confidence.\"", "date_said": "2023-05-02", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2028–2043", "year_low": 2028, "year_high": 2043, "year_mid": 2035, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Smarter-than-human AI", "source_type": "Tweet", "source_title": "@geoffreyhinton", "confidence": "low confidence", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Geoffrey Hinton", "role": "Independent", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "50% chance AI is smarter than humans within 20 years; 10–20% extinction risk", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "by ~2044", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2044, "year_mid": 2044, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "Superintelligence", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "BBC, NYT", "confidence": "50% in 20y", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Yoshua Bengio", "role": "MILA / U Montreal", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"A 95% confidence interval for the time horizon of superhuman intelligence at 5 to 20 years.\"", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2028–2043", "year_low": 2028, "year_high": 2043, "year_mid": 2035, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Superhuman intelligence", "source_type": "Public statement", "source_title": "Bengio blog/conference", "confidence": "95% CI", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Yoshua Bengio", "role": "MILA", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "\"Many leading researchers now estimate the timeline to AGI could be as short as a few years or a decade.\"", "date_said": "2024-10", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2027–2034", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2034, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Essay", "source_title": "\"Implications of AGI on National Security\" (yoshuabengio.org)", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Yann LeCun", "role": "Meta Chief AI Scientist", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "Reaching Human-Level AI \"will take several years if not a decade\" but distribution has a \"long tail: it could take much longer than that.\"", "date_said": "2024-10", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "~2031–2034+", "year_low": 2031, "year_high": null, "year_mid": 2031, "year_category": "after_year", "concept": "Human-level AI", "source_type": "Tweet", "source_title": "@ylecun", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Disputes term AGI", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Yann LeCun", "role": "Meta", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"If someone claims AGI ... is just around the corner, do not believe them. It's just not true.\"", "date_said": "2024-Jan", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "not soon (decades)", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "World Government Summit", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Yann LeCun", "role": "Meta", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "\"Years if not decades\"; on Hacker News: HLAI \"going to take a long time.\"", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2035–2050+", "year_low": 2035, "year_high": null, "year_mid": 2035, "year_category": "after_year", "concept": "Human-level AI", "source_type": "Public stmt", "source_title": "Various", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Most explicit skeptic of frontier-CEO timelines", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Andrew Ng", "role": "DeepLearning.AI / Stanford", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"Maybe a year ago, AGI felt 50 years away. ... we are closer than before, yet many decades away.\"", "date_said": "2026-02", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "≈2070+", "year_low": 2070, "year_high": null, "year_mid": 2070, "year_category": "after_year", "concept": "AGI (strict definition)", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "Fast Company", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Long timeline", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Andrew Ng", "role": "Stanford / Coursera", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "AI fears like \"worrying about overpopulation on Mars.\"", "date_said": "2015", "year_said": 2015, "predicted_year_raw": "very far", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unparseable", "concept": "Strong AI", "source_type": "Conference", "source_title": "GPU Tech Conference", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Often-cited skeptic line", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU emeritus / Geometric Intelligence", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Offered Dario Amodei a $100,000 bet that AI smarter than almost all humans won't exist by end-2027.", "date_said": "2025", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "post-2027 (no AGI)", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": null, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "after_year", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Bet/Tweet", "source_title": "Marcus Substack", "confidence": "confident negative", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Active skeptic", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Gary Marcus", "role": "NYU emeritus", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"We as a society are placing truly massive bets around the premise that AGI is close.\" (skeptical)", "date_said": "2025-10", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "not close", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unparseable", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "Royal Society London", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Stuart Russell", "role": "UC Berkeley CS", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Frames AGI as plausible within 30 years if breakthroughs occur; skeptical of pure-LLM scaling", "date_said": "2019", "year_said": 2019, "predicted_year_raw": "by ~2050", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2050, "year_mid": 2050, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "Beyond-human AI", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "Human Compatible", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Stuart Russell", "role": "UC Berkeley", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "30% chance AGI achievable under current paradigm; 50% chance it stalls due to investor disappointment.", "date_said": "2025", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "uncertain", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unparseable", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "TIME 100 AI 2025", "confidence": "30% / 50%", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Cited in TIME profile", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Rodney Brooks", "role": "MIT emeritus / Robust.AI", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI not expected until ~2300; major milestones unlikely before 2050.", "date_said": "2018, updated yearly", "year_said": 2018, "predicted_year_raw": "2300", "year_low": 2300, "year_high": 2300, "year_mid": 2300, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Blog", "source_title": "rodneybrooks.com Predictions Scorecard", "confidence": "high confidence skeptic", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Long-tail outlier", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Melanie Mitchell", "role": "Santa Fe Institute", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI is \"much further away than people think\"; doesn't endorse near-term timelines.", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified far", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Article", "source_title": "Various / Substack", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Skeptic", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "François Chollet", "role": "ARC Prize / Independent", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Current LLMs not on the path to AGI; ARC-AGI benchmark designed to expose this; AGI requires fluid abstraction not yet achieved.", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Essay", "source_title": "\"On the Measure of Intelligence\" / ARC-AGI launch", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Richard Sutton", "role": "U Alberta", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"Understanding human-level AI ... may well happen by 2030 (25% chance), or by 2040 (50% chance)—or never (10% chance).\"", "date_said": "2017", "year_said": 2017, "predicted_year_raw": "50% by 2040", "year_low": 2040, "year_high": 2040, "year_mid": 2040, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Human-level AI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "Conference talk (cited by McKinsey)", "confidence": "25% / 50% / 10%", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Reinforcement learning pioneer", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Richard Sutton", "role": "U Alberta", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "2025 reversed previous LLM dismissal in correspondence with Marcus, conceding LLM limits.", "date_said": "2025-Q3", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "LLMs not path to AGI", "source_type": "Letter", "source_title": "Substack exchange w/ Marcus", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Mind-change", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Ben Goertzel", "role": "SingularityNET CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"It seems quite plausible we could get to human-level AGI within ... the next three to eight years.\"", "date_said": "2024-03", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2027–2032", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2032, "year_mid": 2029, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Human-level AGI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "Beneficial AGI Summit 2024", "confidence": "\"quite plausible\"", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "\"Father of AGI\" term", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Ben Goertzel", "role": "SingularityNET", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Endorses Kurzweil 2029 \"roughly right; could be 2027, could be 2031.\"", "date_said": "2025", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2027–2031", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2031, "year_mid": 2029, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Human-level AGI", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "AI Inside", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Ben Goertzel", "role": "SingularityNET", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Predicted ASI shortly after AGI — possibly by 2027–2030 with intelligence explosion.", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2027 (early ASI)", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2027, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "single", "concept": "ASI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "Beneficial AGI Summit", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Jürgen Schmidhuber", "role": "IDSIA / KAUST", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "High probability of human/sub-human AI self-modifying to superhuman within hours/days, \"within next few decades.\"", "date_said": "2011", "year_said": 2011, "predicted_year_raw": "2030s–2040s", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2040, "year_mid": 2035, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Superhuman AI", "source_type": "Survey response", "source_title": "Müller/Bostrom expert poll", "confidence": "\"High\"", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Long-time AGI advocate", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Jürgen Schmidhuber", "role": "KAUST", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Reaffirmed near-term AGI possible; AI will be \"much smarter than humans\" \"soon\"; AI will leave Earth.", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "\"soon\"", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI / ASI", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "Jazzyear", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Pieter Abbeel", "role": "UC Berkeley / Covariant", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Optimistic on AGI within 10–20 years (paraphrased from various Lex Fridman appearances).", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2033–2043", "year_low": 2033, "year_high": 2043, "year_mid": 2038, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "Lex Fridman #324", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Stuart Armstrong", "role": "FHI", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Bias study showed AGI predictions cluster at \"15-25 years from time of prediction\" regardless of when made.", "date_said": "2012", "year_said": 2012, "predicted_year_raw": "metaprediction", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "meta", "concept": "HLAI", "source_type": "Paper", "source_title": "\"How We're Predicting AI\"", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Caveat for the whole dataset", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Holden Karnofsky", "role": "Open Philanthropy / GiveWell", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\">10% chance we'll see transformative AI within 15 years (by 2036); ~50% chance within 40 years (by 2060); ~⅔ chance this century (by 2100).\"", "date_said": "2021", "year_said": 2021, "predicted_year_raw": "50% by 2060", "year_low": 2060, "year_high": 2060, "year_mid": 2060, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Transformative AI", "source_type": "Blog", "source_title": "Cold Takes", "confidence": "10/50/67%", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Ajeya Cotra", "role": "Open Philanthropy", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Median 2050 for transformative AI (biological anchors framework).", "date_said": "2020", "year_said": 2020, "predicted_year_raw": "2050", "year_low": 2050, "year_high": 2050, "year_mid": 2050, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Transformative AI", "source_type": "Report", "source_title": "\"Forecasting TAI with Biological Anchors\"", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Key reference doc", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Ajeya Cotra", "role": "Open Philanthropy", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Updated to ~50% by 2040 in 2-year update", "date_said": "2022", "year_said": 2022, "predicted_year_raw": "2040", "year_low": 2040, "year_high": 2040, "year_mid": 2040, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Transformative AI", "source_type": "Blog", "source_title": "\"Two-year update on my personal AI timelines\"", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Ajeya Cotra", "role": "Open Philanthropy", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "2023 discussion median = 2036 for TAI", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2036", "year_low": 2036, "year_high": 2036, "year_mid": 2036, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Transformative AI", "source_type": "Discussion", "source_title": "Cold Takes / 80kHours", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Tightening", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "role": "AI Futures Project / ex-OpenAI", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "~2027 modal year for AGI; medians initially 2028", "date_said": "2025-04", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "mode 2027 / median 2028", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2028, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI / superintelligence", "source_type": "Scenario", "source_title": "AI 2027 (ai-2027.com)", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Most-discussed scenario doc", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "role": "AI Futures Project", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Median updated to 2029 (Aug 2025); slipped from 2028", "date_said": "2025-08", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2029", "year_low": 2029, "year_high": 2029, "year_mid": 2029, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Tweet/blog", "source_title": "LessWrong \"Clarifying ... timelines\"", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "role": "AI Futures Project", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Median moved to 2030s (Nov 2025)", "date_said": "2025-11", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "early 2030s", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Blog", "source_title": "LessWrong", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "role": "OpenAI (then)", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"I currently have something like 50% chance that the point of no return will happen by 2030.\"", "date_said": "2020-11", "year_said": 2020, "predicted_year_raw": "2030", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Point of no return", "source_type": "Blog", "source_title": "LessWrong", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Earlier datapoint", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "role": "Then-OpenAI", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"When I wrote this story, my AI timelines median was something like 2029.\"", "date_said": "2021-08", "year_said": 2021, "predicted_year_raw": "2029", "year_low": 2029, "year_high": 2029, "year_mid": 2029, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Blog", "source_title": "\"What 2026 Looks Like\"", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Famously prescient post", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Eli Lifland", "role": "AI Futures Project", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "SC median 2030; AGI/TED-AI median 2031 (April 2025)", "date_said": "2025-04", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2031", "year_low": 2031, "year_high": 2031, "year_mid": 2031, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI / TED-AI", "source_type": "Blog", "source_title": "AI 2027 supplementary", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Co-author", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Thomas Larsen", "role": "AI Futures Project", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI median 2033 (range 2028–2033 among AI 2027 authors)", "date_said": "2025", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2033", "year_low": 2033, "year_high": 2033, "year_mid": 2033, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Scenario", "source_title": "AI 2027", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Romeo Dean", "role": "AI Futures Project", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI median 2032", "date_said": "2025", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2032", "year_low": 2032, "year_high": 2032, "year_mid": 2032, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Scenario", "source_title": "AI 2027", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Ege Erdil", "role": "Epoch AI then", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Median 2073 for transformative AI", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2073", "year_low": 2073, "year_high": 2073, "year_mid": 2073, "year_category": "single", "concept": "TAI", "source_type": "Discussion", "source_title": "Dwarkesh Patel", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Long-tail", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Tamay Besiroglu", "role": "Epoch AI / Mechanize", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "TAI plausible 2030s–2040s; argues training compute trends suggest 2030s feasibility", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2030s", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "single", "concept": "TAI", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "80,000 Hours", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Jaime Sevilla", "role": "Epoch AI", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Inside-view models suggest 2050s; outside-view longer", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2050s", "year_low": 2050, "year_high": 2050, "year_mid": 2050, "year_category": "single", "concept": "TAI", "source_type": "Blog", "source_title": "Epoch AI Lit Review", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Connor Leahy", "role": "Conjecture CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "50% chance of AGI by 2030; 99% by 2100", "date_said": "2022", "year_said": 2022, "predicted_year_raw": "50% by 2030", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "Various", "confidence": "50% / 99%", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Conjecture employees", "role": "Conjecture (n=~15)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Survey found all employees expect AGI before 2035", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "<2035", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2035, "year_mid": 2035, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "Conjecture internal", "confidence": "100% by 2035", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Andrew Critch", "role": "UC Berkeley CHAI", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "45% chance of AGI by end-2026", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2026", "year_low": 2026, "year_high": 2026, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Public stmt", "source_title": "LessWrong", "confidence": "45%", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Aggressive timeline", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "role": "Ex-OpenAI / Situational Awareness Fund", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible.\"", "date_said": "2024-06", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2027", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2027, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Essay", "source_title": "Situational Awareness", "confidence": "\"Strikingly plausible\"", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Influential viral essay", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Leopold Aschenbrenner", "role": "Situational Awareness Fund", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Superintelligence by end of 2020s; 2027/28 government project", "date_said": "2024-06", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2028–2030", "year_low": 2028, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2029, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Superintelligence", "source_type": "Essay", "source_title": "Situational Awareness", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Carl Shulman", "role": "Open Philanthropy / FHI", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Substantial probability of transformative AI within 15–20 years; cited as informing Aschenbrenner", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2030s", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "single", "concept": "TAI", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "Dwarkesh Patel (2 parts)", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Jan Leike", "role": "Then-OpenAI Superalignment", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Resigned May 2024 saying safety culture \"taken a backseat\"; implicit short timelines", "date_said": "2024-05", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "<2030 implied", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "Superintelligence", "source_type": "Tweet", "source_title": "@janleike", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Now Anthropic", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Roman Yampolskiy", "role": "U Louisville", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI possibly by ~2030 with very high p(doom) (~99.999%)", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2030", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "Lex Fridman #431", "confidence": "very high p(doom)", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Notable doomer", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Helen Toner", "role": "CSET / ex-OpenAI board", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "\"Talk of AGI is often treated as either a science-pipe dream or a marketing ploy\" while frontier labs treat it as serious goal; declined to give specific year", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified, \"serious goal\"", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Congressional", "source_title": "US Senate testimony", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Miles Brundage", "role": "Ex-OpenAI AGI Readiness", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Expects systems capable of any computer-based human task within \"a few years.\"", "date_said": "2024-Q4", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2025–2028", "year_low": 2025, "year_high": 2028, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Tweet", "source_title": "@miles_brundage", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Mira Murati", "role": "Ex-OpenAI CTO / Thinking Machines", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Roughly endorsed OpenAI corporate timeline of AGI within years", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "<2030", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "Dartmouth talk", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Sergey Brin", "role": "Google co-founder", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "\"5 to 10 year timescale\" for AGI in conversation w/ Hassabis", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2029–2034", "year_low": 2029, "year_high": 2034, "year_mid": 2031, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "Big Technology / Kantrowitz Medium piece", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Larry Page", "role": "Google co-founder", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Long-time AGI optimist; views AGI as \"next step in evolution,\" no specific year on record", "date_said": "2017", "year_said": 2017, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified, near", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "Digital deity", "source_type": "Anecdote", "source_title": "reported by Musk in interviews", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Elon Musk", "role": "Tesla/SpaceX/xAI CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"AI will become vastly smarter than any human and would overtake us by 2025.\"", "date_said": "2020-07", "year_said": 2020, "predicted_year_raw": "2025", "year_low": 2025, "year_high": 2025, "year_mid": 2025, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Superhuman AI", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "New York Times", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Elon Musk", "role": "xAI CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"I think it's 5 or 6 years away ... digital super intelligence.\"", "date_said": "2023-07", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2028–2029", "year_low": 2028, "year_high": 2029, "year_mid": 2028, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Digital superintelligence", "source_type": "X Spaces", "source_title": "Twitter Spaces", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Elon Musk", "role": "xAI / Tesla", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it's probably next year, within two years.\"", "date_said": "2024-04-08", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2025–2026", "year_low": 2025, "year_high": 2026, "year_mid": 2025, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "X Spaces", "source_title": "Norway Wealth Fund interview", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Elon Musk", "role": "xAI / Tesla", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI by 2026 (revision from 2025)", "date_said": "2024-08", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2026", "year_low": 2026, "year_high": 2026, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Tweet", "source_title": "@elonmusk", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Elon Musk", "role": "xAI", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"We will have AI that is smarter than any one human probably by the end of this year.\"", "date_said": "2026-01-21", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2026", "year_low": 2026, "year_high": 2026, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "Davos / WEF panel", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Elon Musk", "role": "xAI", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"Grok 5 will be AGI or something indistinguishable from AGI.\"", "date_said": "2025-Q3", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2026 (Grok 5)", "year_low": 2026, "year_high": 2026, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Tweet", "source_title": "@elonmusk", "confidence": "\"10% chance\" stated", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Elon Musk", "role": "Tesla/xAI", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"I'm confident by 2030 AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.\"", "date_said": "2025", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2030", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Collective superintelligence", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "Peter Diamandis Moonshots", "confidence": "\"Confident\"", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Bill Gates", "role": "Microsoft co-founder/philanthropist", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI \"could be a decade or even a century away.\"", "date_said": "2023-03", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2033–2123", "year_low": 2033, "year_high": 2123, "year_mid": 2078, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Op-ed", "source_title": "\"The Age of AI Has Begun\" (gatesnotes)", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "Cautious", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Bill Gates", "role": "Gates Foundation", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "Within 10 years AI will replace many doctors and teachers; \"humans won't be needed for most things.\"", "date_said": "2025-02", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "<2035", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2035, "year_mid": 2035, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "TAI / \"free intelligence\"", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "Tonight Show w/ Jimmy Fallon", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "Functional AGI proxy", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Bill Gates", "role": "—", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"is that within the next year or two, or is it more like ten years away?\" — declined to choose", "date_said": "2025-08", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2026–2035", "year_low": 2026, "year_high": 2035, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "range", "concept": "TAI", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "CNN Fareed Zakaria", "confidence": "uncertain", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Mark Zuckerberg", "role": "Meta CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI is Meta's long-term goal; AGI's arrival will be \"gradual release over time\" not single moment; declined specific year", "date_said": "2024-01", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified gradual", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "The Verge", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Mark Zuckerberg", "role": "Meta", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Restructured Meta into \"Meta Superintelligence Labs\"; superintelligence \"in sight.\"", "date_said": "2025-06", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "<2030 implied", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "Superintelligence", "source_type": "Memo / Letter", "source_title": "Meta corporate", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Jensen Huang", "role": "Nvidia CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI \"within five years\" (defined as passing diverse human tests).", "date_said": "2024-03", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2029", "year_low": 2029, "year_high": 2029, "year_mid": 2029, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "Stanford Forum (GTC week)", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Jensen Huang", "role": "Nvidia CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"I think we've achieved AGI.\"", "date_said": "2026-03", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2026", "year_low": 2026, "year_high": 2026, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI (his definition: $1B AI-built business)", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "Lex Fridman", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "Definitional shift", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "Alphabet/Google CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "\"AJI\" — jagged AI — current era; 2030 AGI is \"possible\" but framed as uncertain", "date_said": "2025-06", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2030 possible", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "Lex Fridman #471", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "Cautious", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Sundar Pichai", "role": "Alphabet", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AI \"more profound than electricity or fire\"; declined specific AGI year", "date_said": "2018", "year_said": 2018, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI / TAI", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "MSNBC / WaPo", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Satya Nadella", "role": "Microsoft CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Skeptical of declaring AGI; emphasized AI value via productivity/economic-growth metric (10% nominal GDP)", "date_said": "2025-02", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "Dwarkesh Patel", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Eric Schmidt", "role": "Ex-Google CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"Within three to five years we'll have ... AGI ... as smart as the smartest mathematician, physicist, artist, writer, thinker, politician.\"", "date_said": "2025-04", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2028–2030", "year_low": 2028, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2029, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Panel", "source_title": "NatSec Tech podcast (SCSP)", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "\"San Francisco Consensus\"", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Eric Schmidt", "role": "Ex-Google CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Recursive self-improvement within 4 years (≈ 2029)", "date_said": "2025-12-01", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2029", "year_low": 2029, "year_high": 2029, "year_mid": 2029, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Recursive self-improving AI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "Harvard Kennedy School Forum", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Reid Hoffman", "role": "LinkedIn co-founder / Greylock", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Expects \"cognitive industrial revolution\" in 2020s; AGI \"possible this decade\" but defined gradualistically", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "<2030", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "AGI / superagency", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "Superagency (2025)", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Vinod Khosla", "role": "Khosla Ventures", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI by 2030; AI doctor better than humans by 2030", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2030", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Op-ed", "source_title": "Khosla Ventures essay", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Marc Andreessen", "role": "a16z", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "\"AI will save the world\"; long-term optimist but no specific AGI year", "date_said": "2023-06", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Essay", "source_title": "a16z \"Why AI Will Save the World\"", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Peter Thiel", "role": "Founders Fund", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Skeptical of singularity hype; defends \"definite optimism\"; no specific AGI date", "date_said": "2023-2024", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Various", "source_title": "—", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Masayoshi Son", "role": "SoftBank CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "AGI by 2030 (\"one to ten times smarter than humans\"); ASI by 2035 (\"10,000 times smarter\")", "date_said": "2024-06-21", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2030 / 2035", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2035, "year_mid": 2032, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI / ASI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "SoftBank annual general meeting Tokyo", "confidence": "\"predict\"", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "Bold ASI claim", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Masayoshi Son", "role": "SoftBank", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "ASI within 3-5 years (June 2024) — earlier than 2035 statement", "date_said": "2024-06", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2027–2029", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2029, "year_mid": 2028, "year_category": "range", "concept": "ASI", "source_type": "Conference", "source_title": "SoftBank World", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "Internal inconsistency noted", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Masayoshi Son", "role": "SoftBank", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Reaffirmed: 400GW datacenter, $9T capex required for ASI by 2035", "date_said": "2024-10-29", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2035", "year_low": 2035, "year_high": 2035, "year_mid": 2035, "year_category": "single", "concept": "ASI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "Future Investment Initiative, Riyadh", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Andrej Karpathy", "role": "Ex-Tesla AI / Ex-OpenAI / Eureka Labs", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"It will take about a decade to work through all of those issues\" — AGI is a decade away", "date_said": "2025-10-17", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "~2035", "year_low": 2035, "year_high": 2035, "year_mid": 2035, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "Dwarkesh Patel", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "\"5–10x more pessimistic than public forecasts\"", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Andrej Karpathy", "role": "Eureka Labs", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "\"Ten years should otherwise be a very bullish timeline for AGI.\"", "date_said": "2025-10-18", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2035", "year_low": 2035, "year_high": 2035, "year_mid": 2035, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Tweet", "source_title": "@karpathy", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Yuval Noah Harari", "role": "Historian / public intellectual", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "\"Within the next century or two we humans are likely to upgrade ourselves into gods\"; superintelligence within decades", "date_said": "2017", "year_said": 2017, "predicted_year_raw": "21st century", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unparseable", "concept": "Superintelligence", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "Homo Deus", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Yuval Noah Harari", "role": "Public intellectual", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AI \"20 to 30 years to transform the world\"; specifically warns of decoupling intelligence from consciousness; sets no precise AGI year", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2044–2054", "year_low": 2044, "year_high": 2054, "year_mid": 2049, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI / inorganic life", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "Nexus", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Max Tegmark", "role": "MIT physicist / FLI", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "\"Life 3.0\" likely within decades; survey of attendees at FLI Asilomar 2017 had wide variance, median ~ 2055", "date_said": "2017", "year_said": 2017, "predicted_year_raw": "2055 (median)", "year_low": 2055, "year_high": 2055, "year_mid": 2055, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI / Life 3.0", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "Life 3.0", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Max Tegmark", "role": "MIT / FLI", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Reaffirmed AGI plausibly within 5-10 years post-GPT-4", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2028–2033", "year_low": 2028, "year_high": 2033, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "Lex Fridman", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "David Chalmers", "role": "NYU philosopher", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Estimated >50% chance human-level AI within century; specific 2035–2100 range", "date_said": "2010", "year_said": 2010, "predicted_year_raw": "21st century", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unparseable", "concept": "Human-level AI", "source_type": "Paper", "source_title": "\"The Singularity: A Philosophical Analysis\"", "confidence": ">50%", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Roger Penrose", "role": "Oxford physicist", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI in current paradigm impossible without quantum understanding of consciousness", "date_said": "1989, restated 2020s", "year_said": 1989, "predicted_year_raw": "Never (current paradigm)", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "never_or_rejection", "concept": "Strong AI", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "The Emperor's New Mind / 2020s talks", "confidence": "strong neg", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Skeptic", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Stephen Hawking", "role": "Cambridge", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AI could \"spell the end of the human race\"; no specific year, but framed as \"within decades\"", "date_said": "2014", "year_said": 2014, "predicted_year_raw": "within decades", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unparseable", "concept": "Superintelligence", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "BBC", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "Historical", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Stephen Wolfram", "role": "Wolfram Research", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Skeptical of singular AGI moment; views capability as continuous", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "continuous", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "Lex Fridman", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Sebastian Thrun", "role": "Stanford / Udacity", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI \"decades\" away", "date_said": "2019", "year_said": 2019, "predicted_year_raw": "2040s+", "year_low": 2040, "year_high": null, "year_mid": 2040, "year_category": "after_year", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "Various", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Tristan Harris", "role": "Center for Humane Technology", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "\"Race to AGI\" already destabilizing; advocates pause; no specific year", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "already disruptive", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unparseable", "concept": "TAI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "\"AI Dilemma\"", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Yann LeCun", "role": "Meta", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "2024 — AGI distribution has long tail \"could take much longer\"", "date_said": "2024-10-17", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2034+", "year_low": 2034, "year_high": null, "year_mid": 2034, "year_category": "after_year", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Tweet", "source_title": "@ylecun", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Reasserted", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Frank Hutter", "role": "U Freiburg / ELLIS", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Survey participant ESPAI - aggregated data", "date_said": "2022", "year_said": 2022, "predicted_year_raw": "aggregate", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "meta", "concept": "HLMI", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "AI Impacts ESPAI 2022", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "One of 738 respondents", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "AI Impacts ESPAI 2016", "role": "Aggregate (n=352)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "50% probability of HLMI by 2061 (median across forecasts)", "date_said": "2016", "year_said": 2016, "predicted_year_raw": "2061", "year_low": 2061, "year_high": 2061, "year_mid": 2061, "year_category": "single", "concept": "HLMI", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "Grace et al. 2018", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "Foundational survey", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "AI Impacts ESPAI 2019", "role": "Aggregate (n=296 recontacts)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "50% probability of HLMI by 2060; Grace recontacts shifted from 2062 to 2076", "date_said": "2019", "year_said": 2019, "predicted_year_raw": "2060", "year_low": 2060, "year_high": 2060, "year_mid": 2060, "year_category": "single", "concept": "HLMI", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "Forecasting AI Progress 2022 paper", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "AI Impacts ESPAI 2022", "role": "Aggregate (n=738)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "50% by 2059 (HLMI); 50% by 2164 (FAOL)", "date_said": "2022", "year_said": 2022, "predicted_year_raw": "2059", "year_low": 2059, "year_high": 2059, "year_mid": 2059, "year_category": "single", "concept": "HLMI", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "AI Impacts", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "AI Impacts ESPAI 2023", "role": "Aggregate (n=2778)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "50% by 2047 (HLMI); 50% by 2116 (FAOL); combined median 2073", "date_said": "2023-Oct", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2047", "year_low": 2047, "year_high": 2047, "year_mid": 2047, "year_category": "single", "concept": "HLMI", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "Grace et al. 2024 (arXiv)", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "Largest expert survey", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Müller & Bostrom 2014 expert poll", "role": "Aggregate (n=170)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Median 50% HLMI by 2040; 90% by 2075", "date_said": "2012–14", "year_said": 2012, "predicted_year_raw": "2040 (50%)", "year_low": 2040, "year_high": 2040, "year_mid": 2040, "year_category": "single", "concept": "HLMI", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "Future Progress in AI", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "FHI Winter Intelligence 2011", "role": "Aggregate", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "50% HLMI median ~2050", "date_said": "2011", "year_said": 2011, "predicted_year_raw": "2050", "year_low": 2050, "year_high": 2050, "year_mid": 2050, "year_category": "single", "concept": "HLMI", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "FHI", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "AGI-09 conference attendees (n=21)", "role": "Aggregate", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI around 2050; superhuman 30y after", "date_said": "2009", "year_said": 2009, "predicted_year_raw": "2050", "year_low": 2050, "year_high": 2050, "year_mid": 2050, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "AGI-09 conference", "confidence": "aggregate", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Kruel survey", "role": "Aggregate (~half AGI workers)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "50% HLAI median in 2030s–2040s", "date_said": "2011", "year_said": 2011, "predicted_year_raw": "2035", "year_low": 2035, "year_high": 2035, "year_mid": 2035, "year_category": "single", "concept": "HLAI", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "Kruel interviews", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Gruetzemacher 2017 survey", "role": "Aggregate (n=165)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "50% AI doing 99% of paid human tasks by 2068", "date_said": "2017", "year_said": 2017, "predicted_year_raw": "2068", "year_low": 2068, "year_high": 2068, "year_mid": 2068, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Full-task automation", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "Forecasting Transformative AI: Expert Survey", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Metaculus \"weakly general AI\"", "role": "Community (~1700 forecasters)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Median 21 Feb 2028", "date_said": "2024-Q4", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2028", "year_low": 2028, "year_high": 2028, "year_mid": 2028, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Weakly general AI", "source_type": "Pred. market", "source_title": "metaculus.com #3479", "confidence": "community median", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Metaculus \"first general AI system\"", "role": "Community (~1700)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Median Apr 23 2028 (current); was Aug 2039 in Nov 2023", "date_said": "2026-04", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2028", "year_low": 2028, "year_high": 2028, "year_mid": 2028, "year_category": "single", "concept": "General AI", "source_type": "Pred. market", "source_title": "metaculus.com #5121", "confidence": "community median", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Metaculus Transformative AI Date", "role": "Community (~171)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Median Aug 2039 at opening; current ~2030s", "date_said": "2023-11", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2039", "year_low": 2039, "year_high": 2039, "year_mid": 2039, "year_category": "single", "concept": "TAI", "source_type": "Pred. market", "source_title": "metaculus.com #19356", "confidence": "community median", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Manifold Markets AGI by year", "role": "Community (~1100)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Year of high-quality adversarial Turing test ≈ 2035", "date_said": "2026-01", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2035", "year_low": 2035, "year_high": 2035, "year_mid": 2035, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Adversarial Turing test", "source_type": "Pred. market", "source_title": "manifold.markets", "confidence": "community", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Kalshi OpenAI AGI by 2030", "role": "Community", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "40% probability OpenAI achieves AGI by 2030", "date_said": "2026-01", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2030 (40%)", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Pred. market", "source_title": "kalshi.com", "confidence": "40%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Polymarket OpenAI AGI by 2027", "role": "Community", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "9% probability OpenAI AGI by 2027", "date_said": "2026-01", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2027 (9%)", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2027, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Pred. market", "source_title": "polymarket.com", "confidence": "9%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Samotsvety Forecasting", "role": "Aggregated (8 superforecasters)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "32% AGI in 20y (by ~2042); 73% by 2100", "date_said": "2022", "year_said": 2022, "predicted_year_raw": "50% by ~2050", "year_low": 2050, "year_high": 2050, "year_mid": 2050, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Forecast team", "source_title": "samotsvety.org", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Samotsvety Forecasting", "role": "Aggregated (8)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "50% AGI by 2041; SD 9 yrs", "date_said": "2023-01", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2041", "year_low": 2041, "year_high": 2041, "year_mid": 2041, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Forecast", "source_title": "Samotsvety", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Samotsvety Forecasting", "role": "Aggregated (8)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Updated Jan 2026 — substantially shorter", "date_said": "2026-01", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "~2035", "year_low": 2035, "year_high": 2035, "year_mid": 2035, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Forecast", "source_title": "Samotsvety", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "Compression", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Good Judgment Project superforecasters", "role": "Aggregate", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "25% chance AGI by 2048 (more conservative than ML researchers)", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2048 (25%)", "year_low": 2048, "year_high": 2048, "year_mid": 2048, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament", "confidence": "25%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "2023 LessWrong survey", "role": "Community (n>200)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Median 2030 for \"AI doing intellectual tasks expert humans currently do\"; 2040 for singularity", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2030 / 2040", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2040, "year_mid": 2035, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI / Singularity", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "LessWrong annual survey", "confidence": "community median", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "AI researcher survey 2025", "role": "Aggregate", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "76% of AI experts said current LLM scaling unlikely to achieve AGI", "date_said": "2025", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "post-LLM era required", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unparseable", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "AAAI Presidential Panel survey", "confidence": "76%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "Mood shift", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Jeff Hawkins", "role": "Numenta", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI requires 1000-brains theory; specific timeline avoided but skeptical of LLM-only path", "date_said": "2021", "year_said": 2021, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "True AGI", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "A Thousand Brains", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Aravind Srinivas", "role": "Perplexity CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI within decade; emphasized agentic systems", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2034", "year_low": 2034, "year_high": 2034, "year_mid": 2034, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "Lex Fridman #434", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Alexandr Wang", "role": "Scale AI / Meta SLI", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Endorsed near-term AGI race framing; AGI in 2020s", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "<2030", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Various", "source_title": "—", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Liang Wenfeng", "role": "DeepSeek founder", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Long-term mission is AGI; declined timeline", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "36Kr", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Emad Mostaque", "role": "Ex-Stability AI", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI by 2025 to 2027", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2025–2027", "year_low": 2025, "year_high": 2027, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Tweet/podcast", "source_title": "Various", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Aidan Gomez", "role": "Cohere CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI \"decades\" away; current LLMs not the path", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2040+", "year_low": 2040, "year_high": null, "year_mid": 2040, "year_category": "after_year", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "TED AI", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Skeptic among CEOs", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Arthur Mensch", "role": "Mistral CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Not focused on AGI; pragmatic deployment focus", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "Le Figaro", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Joelle Pineau", "role": "Meta FAIR", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "\"AGI is not imminent\"; reaffirms LeCun line", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "not imminent", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "NeurIPS", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Fei-Fei Li", "role": "Stanford / World Labs", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Spatial intelligence is the missing piece; no specific AGI year, skeptical of \"AGI\" framing", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI / spatial intelligence", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "TED 2024", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Timnit Gebru", "role": "DAIR", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Argues AGI is \"marketing term\"; rejects framing", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "N/A (rejects framing)", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "never_or_rejection", "concept": "AGI critique", "source_type": "Essay", "source_title": "DAIR / Wired", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Emily Bender", "role": "UW linguistics", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "\"Stochastic parrots\"; rejects AGI framing", "date_said": "2021–2024", "year_said": 2021, "predicted_year_raw": "N/A", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "never_or_rejection", "concept": "AGI critique", "source_type": "Paper", "source_title": "\"Stochastic Parrots\"", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Margaret Mitchell", "role": "Hugging Face", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI claims \"anthropomorphization\"; rejects timelines", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "N/A", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "never_or_rejection", "concept": "AGI critique", "source_type": "Talk", "source_title": "Various", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Erik Brynjolfsson", "role": "Stanford HAI", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "\"Turing Trap\"; transformative AI within 10–20y but not via human replacement", "date_said": "2022", "year_said": 2022, "predicted_year_raw": "2032–2042", "year_low": 2032, "year_high": 2042, "year_mid": 2037, "year_category": "range", "concept": "TAI", "source_type": "Paper", "source_title": "Daedalus", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Daron Acemoglu", "role": "MIT economist", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AI productivity gain limited (~0.5–0.7% TFP/decade); skeptical of transformative AI claims", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified small impact", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "TAI", "source_type": "Paper", "source_title": "NBER w32487", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "Skeptic on economic impact", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Tyler Cowen", "role": "GMU economist", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "AGI within decade likely; emphasizes economic transformation", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "<2034", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2034, "year_mid": 2034, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Blog", "source_title": "Marginal Revolution", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Bryan Caplan", "role": "GMU economist", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Lost public bet on AI capability progress to Matthew Barnett — updated to shorter timelines", "date_said": "2025", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "<2030", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Blog", "source_title": "Bet Catalogue", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "Public mind-change", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Robin Hanson", "role": "GMU economist / FHI", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Em-based AGI/transformative event; long timeline 50–100 years", "date_said": "2016", "year_said": 2016, "predicted_year_raw": "2070+", "year_low": 2070, "year_high": null, "year_mid": 2070, "year_category": "after_year", "concept": "Em-based TAI", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "The Age of Em", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "Long-tail outlier", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Tim Urban", "role": "Wait But Why writer", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Cited expert medians in famous 2015 essay; placed AGI ~2040", "date_said": "2015", "year_said": 2015, "predicted_year_raw": "2040", "year_low": 2040, "year_high": 2040, "year_mid": 2040, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Blog", "source_title": "\"The AI Revolution\"", "confidence": "aggregated", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "Popularizer", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Kevin Kelly", "role": "Wired co-founder", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Long-time AI skeptic re: explosive intelligence; framed gradualism", "date_said": "2017", "year_said": 2017, "predicted_year_raw": "not soon", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "Superintelligence", "source_type": "Essay", "source_title": "Backchannel \"The Myth of a Superhuman AI\"", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Lex Fridman", "role": "MIT/podcaster", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Personally cites ~2030–2040 AGI window across episodes", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2030–2040", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2040, "year_mid": 2035, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Podcast (own)", "source_title": "Lex Fridman Podcast", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Joe Rogan", "role": "Podcaster", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Repeats Kurzweil/Musk lines; no original prediction", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2029 (echoes)", "year_low": 2029, "year_high": 2029, "year_mid": 2029, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "JRE", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Cal Newport", "role": "Georgetown / author", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Skeptic; argues \"deep work\" remains; no specific year", "date_said": "2024", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified far", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Book", "source_title": "various essays", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Jaron Lanier", "role": "Microsoft Research", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Rejects AGI framing entirely", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "N/A", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "never_or_rejection", "concept": "AGI critique", "source_type": "Interview", "source_title": "Guardian", "confidence": "—", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "notes": "—", "source_batch": "v1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Sam Altman", "role": "OpenAI CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it.", "date_said": "2025-01 (approx, via TIME)", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "near-term, ≤2026 implied", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2026, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Magazine", "source_title": "TIME (citing samaltman.com Reflections)", "confidence": "High", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "Restated in v2 batch1 from TIME source; complementary to v1 row.", "source_batch": "v2-batch1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Sam Altman", "role": "OpenAI CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "AGI will probably get developed during [Trump's] term.", "date_said": "2025-01 (approx, via TIME)", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "during Trump's term (2025-2029)", "year_low": 2025, "year_high": 2029, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Magazine", "source_title": "TIME", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "v2 batch1; range 2025-01 to 2029-01.", "source_batch": "v2-batch1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Jensen Huang", "role": "Nvidia CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "I think it's now. I think we've achieved AGI.", "date_said": "2026 (approx)", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "now", "year_low": 2026, "year_high": 2026, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI (his definition)", "source_type": "Magazine", "source_title": "The Verge", "confidence": "", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "notes": "v2 batch1; cf. Lex Fridman version in v1.", "source_batch": "v2-batch1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Demis Hassabis", "role": "DeepMind CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "probably 3-5 years away", "date_said": "2025 (approx, via 80000hours)", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "3-5 years", "year_low": 2028, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2029, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI", "source_type": "Newsletter/Substack", "source_title": "80,000 Hours newsletter", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "v2 batch1 NEW: sharper than v1's 5-10y framing. Worth tracking as a potential mind-tightening.", "source_batch": "v2-batch1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Geoffrey Hinton", "role": "Independent (former Google)", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "A bet is between five and 20 [years].", "date_said": "2024 (approx, via CNN)", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "5-20 years", "year_low": 2029, "year_high": 2044, "year_mid": 2036, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Smarter-than-human AI", "source_type": "TV/Online", "source_title": "CNN", "confidence": "", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "notes": "v2 batch1; same range as 2023 NYT/Twitter version.", "source_batch": "v2-batch1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Yann LeCun", "role": "Meta Chief AI Scientist", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "it will take several years if not a decade", "date_said": "2024 (approx, via X)", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "several years to a decade", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2034, "year_mid": 2031, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Human-level AI", "source_type": "Tweet", "source_title": "X / @ylecun", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "v2 batch1.", "source_batch": "v2-batch1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Dario Amodei", "role": "Anthropic CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "Within 10 years, we'll get to country of geniuses in the data center.", "date_said": "2025 (approx, via VC Corner)", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "within 10 years", "year_low": null, "year_high": 2035, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "by_year", "concept": "Powerful AI / country of geniuses", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "The VC Corner", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "v2 batch1; longer ceiling than 2027 framing in v1 — definitional drift example.", "source_batch": "v2-batch1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Dario Amodei", "role": "Anthropic CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "With coding, I think we'll be there in one or two years.", "date_said": "2025 (approx, via VC Corner)", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "1-2 years (coding)", "year_low": 2026, "year_high": 2027, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Coding-specific AGI", "source_type": "Podcast", "source_title": "The VC Corner", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "v2 batch1 NEW: domain-specific (coding) prediction. Suggests a future filter cut: full AGI vs. domain milestones.", "source_batch": "v2-batch1", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Metaculus 'weakly general AI' community", "role": "Crowdsourced forecasters (~1700 total over time)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Community median for weak AGI as of 2020.", "date_said": "2020", "year_said": 2020, "predicted_year_raw": "2070", "year_low": 2070, "year_high": 2070, "year_mid": 2070, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Weak AGI", "source_type": "Pred. market", "source_title": "metaculus.com #3479 (2020 snapshot)", "confidence": "community median", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "v3 batch2: historical Metaculus trajectory point. Combined with later snapshots makes a line: 2070 (2020) → 2045 (2022) → 2031 (2023) → 2029 (2024) → 2031 (2026).", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Metaculus 'weakly general AI' community", "role": "Crowdsourced forecasters", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Community median jumped after GPT-4.", "date_said": "2022", "year_said": 2022, "predicted_year_raw": "2045", "year_low": 2045, "year_high": 2045, "year_mid": 2045, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Weak AGI", "source_type": "Pred. market", "source_title": "metaculus.com #3479 (2022 snapshot)", "confidence": "community median", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "v3 batch2.", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Metaculus 'weakly general AI' community", "role": "Crowdsourced forecasters", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Median tightened to 2031 after a year of GPT-4-class systems.", "date_said": "2023", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2031", "year_low": 2031, "year_high": 2031, "year_mid": 2031, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Weak AGI", "source_type": "Pred. market", "source_title": "metaculus.com #3479 (2023 snapshot)", "confidence": "community median", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "v3 batch2.", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Metaculus 'weakly general AI' community", "role": "Crowdsourced forecasters", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Median bounced back slightly as Data Wall + continual learning concerns surfaced.", "date_said": "2026", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2031", "year_low": 2031, "year_high": 2031, "year_mid": 2031, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Strong AGI", "source_type": "Pred. market", "source_title": "metaculus.com #3479 (early 2026 snapshot)", "confidence": "community median", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "v3 batch2: stabilization signal.", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "AI Impacts ESPAI 2023 (10% threshold)", "role": "Aggregate (n=2778)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "10% probability of HLMI by this year.", "date_said": "2023-Oct", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2027", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2027, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "single", "concept": "HLMI (10% threshold)", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "Grace et al. 2024 (arXiv) — 10% threshold", "confidence": "10%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "v3 batch2: paired with 2047 (50%) and 2100+ (90%) for the same survey to show the distribution width.", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "AI Impacts ESPAI 2023 (90% threshold)", "role": "Aggregate (n=2778)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "90% probability of HLMI by this year.", "date_said": "2023-Oct", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2100+", "year_low": 2100, "year_high": null, "year_mid": 2100, "year_category": "after_year", "concept": "HLMI (90% threshold)", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "Grace et al. 2024 (arXiv) — 90% threshold", "confidence": "90%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "v3 batch2: shows the 73-year distribution width.", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": true, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "AI Impacts ESPAI 2023 — task milestone", "role": "Aggregate (n=2778) task-specific question", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "50% probability of human-level performance on: Writing a New York Times Bestseller", "date_said": "2023-Oct", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2028", "year_low": 2028, "year_high": 2028, "year_mid": 2028, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Task-specific AI capability", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "Grace et al. 2024 (arXiv) — task-specific 50% probabilities", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "v3 batch2: jagged-frontier task. Complexity: High (Linguistic).", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "task_year", "task": "Writing a New York Times Bestseller", "task_complexity": "High (Linguistic)", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "AI Impacts ESPAI 2023 — task milestone", "role": "Aggregate (n=2778) task-specific question", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "50% probability of human-level performance on: Winning a World Series of Poker", "date_said": "2023-Oct", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2027", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2027, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Task-specific AI capability", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "Grace et al. 2024 (arXiv) — task-specific 50% probabilities", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "v3 batch2: jagged-frontier task. Complexity: Moderate (Strategic).", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "task_year", "task": "Winning a World Series of Poker", "task_complexity": "Moderate (Strategic)", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "AI Impacts ESPAI 2023 — task milestone", "role": "Aggregate (n=2778) task-specific question", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "50% probability of human-level performance on: Transcribing Speech in Noisy Environments", "date_said": "2023-Oct", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2026", "year_low": 2026, "year_high": 2026, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Task-specific AI capability", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "Grace et al. 2024 (arXiv) — task-specific 50% probabilities", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "v3 batch2: jagged-frontier task. Complexity: Low (Perceptual).", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "task_year", "task": "Transcribing Speech in Noisy Environments", "task_complexity": "Low (Perceptual)", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "AI Impacts ESPAI 2023 — task milestone", "role": "Aggregate (n=2778) task-specific question", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "50% probability of human-level performance on: Coding a Website from Scratch", "date_said": "2023-Oct", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2027", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2027, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Task-specific AI capability", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "Grace et al. 2024 (arXiv) — task-specific 50% probabilities", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "v3 batch2: jagged-frontier task. Complexity: High (Technical).", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "task_year", "task": "Coding a Website from Scratch", "task_complexity": "High (Technical)", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "AI Impacts ESPAI 2023 — task milestone", "role": "Aggregate (n=2778) task-specific question", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "50% probability of human-level performance on: Discovering New Physical Laws", "date_said": "2023-Oct", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2040", "year_low": 2040, "year_high": 2040, "year_mid": 2040, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Task-specific AI capability", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "Grace et al. 2024 (arXiv) — task-specific 50% probabilities", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "v3 batch2: jagged-frontier task. Complexity: Extreme (Reasoning).", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "task_year", "task": "Discovering New Physical Laws", "task_complexity": "Extreme (Reasoning)", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "AI Impacts ESPAI 2023 — task milestone", "role": "Aggregate (n=2778) task-specific question", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "50% probability of human-level performance on: Performing Full Surgical Procedures", "date_said": "2023-Oct", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2050", "year_low": 2050, "year_high": 2050, "year_mid": 2050, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Task-specific AI capability", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "Grace et al. 2024 (arXiv) — task-specific 50% probabilities", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "v3 batch2: jagged-frontier task. Complexity: Extreme (Robotic).", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "task_year", "task": "Performing Full Surgical Procedures", "task_complexity": "Extreme (Robotic)", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "AI Impacts ESPAI 2023 — task milestone", "role": "Aggregate (n=2778) task-specific question", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "50% probability of human-level performance on: Constructing a Small House (Robotics)", "date_said": "2023-Oct", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2033", "year_low": 2033, "year_high": 2033, "year_mid": 2033, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Task-specific AI capability", "source_type": "Survey", "source_title": "Grace et al. 2024 (arXiv) — task-specific 50% probabilities", "confidence": "50%", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "notes": "v3 batch2: jagged-frontier task. Complexity: High (Robotic).", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "task_year", "task": "Constructing a Small House (Robotics)", "task_complexity": "High (Robotic)", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "DeepMind AGI Levels — Level 0 No AI", "role": "Capability framework (Morris et al., DeepMind 2023)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Level 0 (No AI): Standard procedural software. Status: Achieved (Historic).", "date_said": "2023-11", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "Achieved (Historic)", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "framework", "concept": "AGI Level 0", "source_type": "Paper", "source_title": "Morris, Shane et al. — Levels of AGI (DeepMind)", "confidence": "Framework projection", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "v3 batch2: staircase row. Render as a separate visual cut, not as a dot on the main scatter.", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "agi_level", "agi_level": 0, "agi_level_name": "No AI", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "DeepMind AGI Levels — Level 1 Emerging", "role": "Capability framework (Morris et al., DeepMind 2023)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Level 1 (Emerging): Equal to or better than unskilled humans. Status: Achieved (LLMs, 2022-2023).", "date_said": "2023-11", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "Achieved (LLMs, 2022-2023)", "year_low": 2023, "year_high": 2023, "year_mid": 2023, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI Level 1", "source_type": "Paper", "source_title": "Morris, Shane et al. — Levels of AGI (DeepMind)", "confidence": "Framework projection", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "v3 batch2: staircase row. Render as a separate visual cut, not as a dot on the main scatter.", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "agi_level", "agi_level": 1, "agi_level_name": "Emerging", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "DeepMind AGI Levels — Level 2 Competent", "role": "Capability framework (Morris et al., DeepMind 2023)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Level 2 (Competent): 50th percentile of skilled adults. Status: Projected 2025-2026.", "date_said": "2023-11", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "Projected 2025-2026", "year_low": 2025, "year_high": 2026, "year_mid": 2025, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI Level 2", "source_type": "Paper", "source_title": "Morris, Shane et al. — Levels of AGI (DeepMind)", "confidence": "Framework projection", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "v3 batch2: staircase row. Render as a separate visual cut, not as a dot on the main scatter.", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "agi_level", "agi_level": 2, "agi_level_name": "Competent", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "DeepMind AGI Levels — Level 3 Expert", "role": "Capability framework (Morris et al., DeepMind 2023)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Level 3 (Expert): 90th percentile of skilled adults. Status: Projected 2027-2028.", "date_said": "2023-11", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "Projected 2027-2028", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2028, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI Level 3", "source_type": "Paper", "source_title": "Morris, Shane et al. — Levels of AGI (DeepMind)", "confidence": "Framework projection", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "v3 batch2: staircase row. Render as a separate visual cut, not as a dot on the main scatter.", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "agi_level", "agi_level": 3, "agi_level_name": "Expert", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "DeepMind AGI Levels — Level 4 Virtuoso", "role": "Capability framework (Morris et al., DeepMind 2023)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Level 4 (Virtuoso): 99th percentile of skilled adults. Status: Projected 2029-2030.", "date_said": "2023-11", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "Projected 2029-2030", "year_low": 2029, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2029, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI Level 4", "source_type": "Paper", "source_title": "Morris, Shane et al. — Levels of AGI (DeepMind)", "confidence": "Framework projection", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "v3 batch2: staircase row. Render as a separate visual cut, not as a dot on the main scatter.", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "agi_level", "agi_level": 4, "agi_level_name": "Virtuoso", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "DeepMind AGI Levels — Level 5 Superhuman", "role": "Capability framework (Morris et al., DeepMind 2023)", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Level 5 (Superhuman): Outperforms all humans in all tasks. Status: Projected 2030+.", "date_said": "2023-11", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "Projected 2030+", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": null, "year_mid": 2032, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI Level 5", "source_type": "Paper", "source_title": "Morris, Shane et al. — Levels of AGI (DeepMind)", "confidence": "Framework projection", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "notes": "v3 batch2: staircase row. Render as a separate visual cut, not as a dot on the main scatter.", "source_batch": "v3-batch2", "prediction_type": "agi_level", "agi_level": 5, "agi_level_name": "Superhuman", "source_url": null, "verified_level": "medium", "source_quality": "secondary", "stance_category": null, "include_in_average": false, "organization": null, "expert_type": null, "prediction_scope": null }, { "person": "Sam Altman", "role": "CEO", "organization": "OpenAI", "expert_type": "AI lab CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it.", "claim_summary": "OpenAI is confident it knows how to build AGI as traditionally understood; AI agents may join the workforce in 2025.", "date_said": "2025-01-06", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2025–2025", "year_low": 2025, "year_high": 2025, "year_mid": 2025, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "prediction_scope": "AGI", "source_type": "primary", "source_quality": "primary", "source_title": "Sam Altman blog, Reflections", "source_url": "https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections", "verified_level": "high", "stance_category": "optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Altman also clarified OpenAI had not built or was not deploying AGI immediately.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "sam-altman-2025-reflections-agi" }, { "person": "Sam Altman", "role": "CEO", "organization": "OpenAI", "expert_type": "AI lab CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "in 2025, we may see the first AI agents join the workforce", "claim_summary": "First AI agents may enter the workforce in 2025 and materially change company output.", "date_said": "2025-01-06", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2025–2025", "year_low": 2025, "year_high": 2025, "year_mid": 2025, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AI agents / workforce", "prediction_scope": "AI agents / workforce", "source_type": "primary", "source_quality": "primary", "source_title": "Sam Altman blog, Reflections", "source_url": "https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections", "verified_level": "high", "stance_category": "optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "include_in_average": false, "notes": "Useful for timeline dashboard, but not strict AGI.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "sam-altman-2025-agents-workforce" }, { "person": "Sam Altman", "role": "CEO", "organization": "OpenAI", "expert_type": "AI lab CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "We are not gonna deploy AGI next month, nor have we built it.", "claim_summary": "Altman clarified that OpenAI had not built AGI and was not deploying AGI imminently.", "date_said": "2025-01-21", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI not yet built", "prediction_scope": "AGI not yet built", "source_type": "secondary quoting social post", "source_quality": "secondary quoting social post", "source_title": "Moneycontrol report on Altman clarification", "source_url": "https://www.moneycontrol.com/technology/openai-has-not-built-agi-yet-sam-altman-clarifies-article-12915753.html", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "clarification", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "include_in_average": false, "notes": "Good counterbalance to headlines saying AGI arrived in 2025.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "sam-altman-2025-not-built-agi" }, { "person": "Sam Altman", "role": "CEO", "organization": "OpenAI", "expert_type": "AI lab CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Altman reportedly predicted superintelligent AI, smarter than humans across the board, by 2030, with major breakthroughs by 2026.", "claim_summary": "Altman reportedly predicted superintelligent AI, smarter than humans across the board, by 2030, with major breakthroughs by 2026.", "date_said": "2025-09-01", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2030–2030", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Superintelligence", "prediction_scope": "Superintelligence", "source_type": "secondary interview report", "source_quality": "secondary interview report", "source_title": "Business Insider, Altman interview summary", "source_url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/sam-altman-predicts-ai-agi-surpass-human-intelligence-2030-2025-9", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Need original Welt interview transcript for primary verification.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "sam-altman-2025-superintelligence-2030" }, { "person": "Sam Altman / OpenAI", "role": "CEO / company roadmap", "organization": "OpenAI", "expert_type": "AI lab", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "OpenAI roadmap reportedly targets AI research-intern-like capabilities by 2026.", "claim_summary": "OpenAI roadmap reportedly targets AI research-intern-like capabilities by 2026.", "date_said": "2025-10-01", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2026–2026", "year_low": 2026, "year_high": 2026, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AI research assistant", "prediction_scope": "AI research assistant", "source_type": "secondary", "source_quality": "secondary", "source_title": "TechRadar roadmap report", "source_url": "https://www.techradar.com/ai-platforms-assistants/chatgpt/openai-roadmap-revealed-ai-research-interns-by-2026-full-blown-agi-researchers-by-2028", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "include_in_average": false, "notes": "Not AGI, but dashboard-relevant milestone.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "openai-roadmap-ai-research-intern-2026" }, { "person": "Sam Altman / OpenAI", "role": "CEO / company roadmap", "organization": "OpenAI", "expert_type": "AI lab", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "OpenAI reportedly aims for an autonomous AI researcher by March 2028.", "claim_summary": "OpenAI reportedly aims for an autonomous AI researcher by March 2028.", "date_said": "2025-10-01", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2028–2028", "year_low": 2028, "year_high": 2028, "year_mid": 2028, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Autonomous AI researcher", "prediction_scope": "Autonomous AI researcher", "source_type": "secondary", "source_quality": "secondary", "source_title": "TechRadar roadmap report", "source_url": "https://www.techradar.com/ai-platforms-assistants/chatgpt/openai-roadmap-revealed-ai-research-interns-by-2026-full-blown-agi-researchers-by-2028", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "include_in_average": false, "notes": "Not necessarily full AGI, but a strong AI capability milestone.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "openai-roadmap-ai-researcher-2028" }, { "person": "Dario Amodei", "role": "CEO", "organization": "Anthropic", "expert_type": "AI lab CEO", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "powerful AI systems will emerge in late 2026 or early 2027", "claim_summary": "Anthropic expects powerful AI systems with Nobel-level intellectual capability across most disciplines in late 2026 or early 2027.", "date_said": "2025-03-06", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2026–2027", "year_low": 2026, "year_high": 2027, "year_mid": 2026, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Powerful AI", "prediction_scope": "Powerful AI", "source_type": "primary/company statement", "source_quality": "primary/company statement", "source_title": "Anthropic recommendations to OSTP", "source_url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-s-recommendations-ostp-u-s-ai-action-plan", "verified_level": "high", "stance_category": "safety-aware optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Amodei prefers 'powerful AI' framing, not always AGI.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "dario-amodei-2025-ostp-powerful-ai" }, { "person": "Dario Amodei", "role": "CEO", "organization": "Anthropic", "expert_type": "AI lab CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Amodei said AI could surpass almost all humans at almost everything shortly after 2027.", "claim_summary": "Amodei said AI could surpass almost all humans at almost everything shortly after 2027.", "date_said": "2025-01-01", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2027–2028", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2028, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AI surpassing humans", "prediction_scope": "AI surpassing humans", "source_type": "secondary", "source_quality": "secondary", "source_title": "Ars Technica report", "source_url": "https://arstechnica.com/ai/2025/01/anthropic-chief-says-ai-could-surpass-almost-all-humans-at-almost-everything-shortly-after-2027/", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "safety-aware optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Get original interview if you want exact wording.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "dario-amodei-2025-almost-all-humans" }, { "person": "Demis Hassabis", "role": "CEO", "organization": "Google DeepMind", "expert_type": "AI lab CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Hassabis said human-level AI could be here in five to ten years from 2025.", "claim_summary": "Hassabis said human-level AI could be here in five to ten years from 2025.", "date_said": "2025-03-17", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2030–2035", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2035, "year_mid": 2032, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Human-level AI", "prediction_scope": "Human-level AI", "source_type": "secondary interview report", "source_quality": "secondary interview report", "source_title": "CNBC", "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/17/human-level-ai-will-be-here-in-5-to-10-years-deepmind-ceo-says.html", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "moderate optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Useful as a moderate frontier-lab prediction.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "demis-hassabis-2025-human-level-ai-5-10" }, { "person": "Demis Hassabis", "role": "CEO", "organization": "Google DeepMind", "expert_type": "AI lab CEO", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Google leaders, including Hassabis, suggested AGI could emerge around 2030.", "claim_summary": "Google leaders, including Hassabis, suggested AGI could emerge around 2030.", "date_said": "2025-05-21", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2030–2030", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "prediction_scope": "AGI", "source_type": "secondary event report", "source_quality": "secondary event report", "source_title": "Axios", "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2025/05/21/google-sergey-brin-demis-hassabis-agi-2030", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "moderate optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Potentially overlaps with 5-10 year claim.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "demis-hassabis-google-2030-axios" }, { "person": "Sergey Brin", "role": "Co-founder", "organization": "Google", "expert_type": "Big Tech founder", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Brin joined Google leadership discussion suggesting AGI could arrive around 2030.", "claim_summary": "Brin joined Google leadership discussion suggesting AGI could arrive around 2030.", "date_said": "2025-05-21", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2030–2030", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI", "prediction_scope": "AGI", "source_type": "secondary event report", "source_quality": "secondary event report", "source_title": "Axios", "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2025/05/21/google-sergey-brin-demis-hassabis-agi-2030", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "moderate optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Find exact I/O transcript for quote.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "sergey-brin-google-2030-axios" }, { "person": "Jensen Huang", "role": "CEO", "organization": "Nvidia", "expert_type": "Big Tech CEO / infrastructure", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Huang said AI could pass broad human tests within five years, depending on AGI definition.", "claim_summary": "Huang said AI could pass broad human tests within five years, depending on AGI definition.", "date_said": "2024-03-01", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2029–2029", "year_low": 2029, "year_high": 2029, "year_mid": 2029, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI by test-passing definition", "prediction_scope": "AGI by test-passing definition", "source_type": "news report", "source_quality": "news report", "source_title": "Reuters", "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-ceo-says-ai-could-pass-human-tests-five-years-2024-03-01/", "verified_level": "high", "stance_category": "optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Definition-dependent: passing human tests, not necessarily autonomous agency.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "jensen-huang-2024-five-years-reuters" }, { "person": "Jensen Huang", "role": "CEO", "organization": "Nvidia", "expert_type": "Big Tech CEO / infrastructure", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Huang said AI would be fairly competitive with humans within five years.", "claim_summary": "Huang said AI would be fairly competitive with humans within five years.", "date_said": "2023-11-29", "year_said": 2023, "predicted_year_raw": "2028–2028", "year_low": 2028, "year_high": 2028, "year_mid": 2028, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Human-competitive AI", "prediction_scope": "Human-competitive AI", "source_type": "news report", "source_quality": "news report", "source_title": "CNBC DealBook coverage", "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/29/nvidia-ceo-ai-will-be-fairly-competitive-with-humans-in-5-years.html", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Not strict AGI; useful as human-competitive forecast.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "jensen-huang-2023-five-years-cnbc" }, { "person": "Elon Musk", "role": "CEO / founder", "organization": "xAI / Tesla / SpaceX", "expert_type": "Founder / AI company leader", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Musk predicted AI would be smarter than the smartest human by next year or by 2026.", "claim_summary": "Musk predicted AI would be smarter than the smartest human by next year or by 2026.", "date_said": "2024-04-08", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2025–2026", "year_low": 2025, "year_high": 2026, "year_mid": 2025, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Superhuman AI", "prediction_scope": "Superhuman AI", "source_type": "news report", "source_quality": "news report", "source_title": "Reuters", "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/teslas-musk-predicts-ai-will-be-smarter-than-smartest-human-next-year-2024-04-08/", "verified_level": "high", "stance_category": "aggressive optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Aggressive forecast; not always framed as AGI.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "elon-musk-2024-smarter-than-smartest-human" }, { "person": "Elon Musk", "role": "CEO / founder", "organization": "xAI / Tesla / SpaceX", "expert_type": "Founder / AI company leader", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year", "claim_summary": "Musk guessed AI smarter than any one human could exist around end of the next year from April 2024.", "date_said": "2024-04-09", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2025–2025", "year_low": 2025, "year_high": 2025, "year_mid": 2025, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Superhuman AI", "prediction_scope": "Superhuman AI", "source_type": "news report quoting interview", "source_quality": "news report quoting interview", "source_title": "The Guardian", "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/apr/09/elon-musk-predicts-superhuman-ai-will-be-smarter-than-people-next-year", "verified_level": "high", "stance_category": "aggressive optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Treat as superhuman single-human forecast, not full labor automation.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "elon-musk-2024-any-one-human-guardian" }, { "person": "Ray Kurzweil", "role": "Futurist / inventor", "organization": "Google / author", "expert_type": "Futurist", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Kurzweil has long predicted human-level AI by 2029.", "claim_summary": "Kurzweil has long predicted human-level AI by 2029.", "date_said": "2026-01-01", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2029–2029", "year_low": 2029, "year_high": 2029, "year_mid": 2029, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Human-level AI / AGI", "prediction_scope": "Human-level AI / AGI", "source_type": "secondary", "source_quality": "secondary", "source_title": "The Deep View summary of Kurzweil 2029 prediction", "source_url": "https://www.thedeepview.com/articles/why-kurzweil-still-sees-agi-coming-by-2029", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "longtime optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Use The Singularity Is Nearer for primary book citation.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "ray-kurzweil-2029-human-level-ai" }, { "person": "Ray Kurzweil", "role": "Futurist / inventor", "organization": "Google / author", "expert_type": "Futurist", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Kurzweil forecasts the Singularity around 2045.", "claim_summary": "Kurzweil forecasts the Singularity around 2045.", "date_said": "2024-01-01", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2045–2045", "year_low": 2045, "year_high": 2045, "year_mid": 2045, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Singularity / ASI", "prediction_scope": "Singularity / ASI", "source_type": "secondary", "source_quality": "secondary", "source_title": "Kurzweil public timeline / Singularity Is Nearer summaries", "source_url": "https://www.thedeepview.com/articles/why-kurzweil-still-sees-agi-coming-by-2029", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "longtime optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "include_in_average": false, "notes": "Separate from AGI/human-level AI.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "ray-kurzweil-2045-singularity" }, { "person": "Ben Goertzel", "role": "AGI researcher / CEO", "organization": "SingularityNET", "expert_type": "AGI researcher", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Goertzel said human-level AI is likely two to three years away from April 2026.", "claim_summary": "Goertzel said human-level AI is likely two to three years away from April 2026.", "date_said": "2026-04-18", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2028–2029", "year_low": 2028, "year_high": 2029, "year_mid": 2028, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Human-level AI", "prediction_scope": "Human-level AI", "source_type": "news report", "source_quality": "news report", "source_title": "Times of India", "source_url": "https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/father-of-agi-ben-goertzel-says-human-level-ai-2-3-years-away-warns-once-you-have-a/articleshow/130350964.cms", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Good optimist data point; get original interview if possible.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "ben-goertzel-2026-two-three-years" }, { "person": "Shane Legg", "role": "Co-founder / Chief AGI Scientist", "organization": "Google DeepMind", "expert_type": "AI lab founder / researcher", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Legg has maintained a roughly 50% chance of minimal AGI by 2028.", "claim_summary": "Legg has maintained a roughly 50% chance of minimal AGI by 2028.", "date_said": "2025-12-14", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2028–2028", "year_low": 2028, "year_high": 2028, "year_mid": 2028, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Minimal AGI", "prediction_scope": "Minimal AGI", "source_type": "secondary", "source_quality": "secondary", "source_title": "AI Tech Suite summary", "source_url": "https://www.aitechsuite.com/ai-news/deepmind-co-founder-predicts-50-chance-of-human-like-agi-by-2028", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "moderate optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Need primary interview/source for publication-grade quote.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "shane-legg-2028-minimal-agi" }, { "person": "Mustafa Suleyman", "role": "CEO, Microsoft AI", "organization": "Microsoft AI", "expert_type": "AI lab / Big Tech leader", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "human-level performance on most, if not all, professional tasks", "claim_summary": "Suleyman predicted human-level performance on most professional tasks within 12 to 18 months from February 2026.", "date_said": "2026-02-13", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2027–2028", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2028, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Human-level professional tasks", "prediction_scope": "Human-level professional tasks", "source_type": "secondary quoting FT interview", "source_quality": "secondary quoting FT interview", "source_title": "Tom's Hardware summary of FT interview", "source_url": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/microsofts-ai-boss-says-ai-can-replace-every-white-collar-job-in-18-months-were-going-to-have-a-human-level-performance-on-most-if-not-all-professional-tasks", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "capability optimist", "confidence": "", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "include_in_average": false, "notes": "Capability/work automation prediction, not strict AGI.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "mustafa-suleyman-2026-professional-tasks-18-months" }, { "person": "Yann LeCun", "role": "Chief AI Scientist", "organization": "Meta", "expert_type": "AI pioneer / researcher", "verbatim": true, "quote_text": "There is no such thing as general intelligence.", "claim_summary": "LeCun argues the concept of general intelligence is poorly framed and that current LLMs are not the path to human-level intelligence.", "date_said": "2026-03-01", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "Rejects AGI framing", "prediction_scope": "Rejects AGI framing", "source_type": "secondary synthesis", "source_quality": "secondary synthesis", "source_title": "Nevo synthesis quoting LeCun position", "source_url": "https://nevo.systems/blogs/nevo-journal/agi-timeline-predictions", "verified_level": "low", "stance_category": "skeptic / architecture critic", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "include_in_average": false, "notes": "Use as 'definition dispute' row; needs primary X/interview source.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "yann-lecun-2025-no-general-intelligence" }, { "person": "Yann LeCun", "role": "Chief AI Scientist", "organization": "Meta", "expert_type": "AI pioneer / researcher", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "LeCun is summarized as estimating human-level AI could arrive in 5-10 years if architecture changes.", "claim_summary": "LeCun is summarized as estimating human-level AI could arrive in 5-10 years if architecture changes.", "date_said": "2026-03-01", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2031–2036", "year_low": 2031, "year_high": 2036, "year_mid": 2033, "year_category": "range", "concept": "Human-level AI with architecture change", "prediction_scope": "Human-level AI with architecture change", "source_type": "secondary synthesis", "source_quality": "secondary synthesis", "source_title": "Nevo synthesis", "source_url": "https://nevo.systems/blogs/nevo-journal/agi-timeline-predictions", "verified_level": "low", "stance_category": "skeptic / architecture critic", "confidence": "", "tier": "T1", "tier_full": "T1", "category": "frontier-lab", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Needs primary verification before using in a serious published dashboard.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "yann-lecun-architecture-5-10-years" }, { "person": "Gary Marcus", "role": "AI critic / professor emeritus", "organization": "NYU", "expert_type": "Skeptic / cognitive scientist", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Marcus said we are at least a decade away from solving AI.", "claim_summary": "Marcus said we are at least a decade away from solving AI.", "date_said": "2024-05-20", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2034", "year_low": 2034, "year_high": null, "year_mid": 2034, "year_category": "after_year", "concept": "Solving AI / AGI", "prediction_scope": "Solving AI / AGI", "source_type": "video/interview", "source_quality": "video/interview", "source_title": "CNBC video segment", "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/05/20/were-at-least-a-decade-away-from-solving-ai-says-nyu-professor-gary-marcus.html", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "skeptic", "confidence": "", "tier": "T3", "tier_full": "T3", "category": "tech-exec", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Use as lower-bound >=2034; midpoint is conservative placeholder.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "gary-marcus-2024-decade-away" }, { "person": "Geoffrey Hinton", "role": "Professor emeritus / Turing Award winner", "organization": "University of Toronto / former Google", "expert_type": "AI pioneer / safety concern", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Hinton suggested dangerous or superintelligent AI could arrive within about 10 years from 2025.", "claim_summary": "Hinton suggested dangerous or superintelligent AI could arrive within about 10 years from 2025.", "date_said": "2025-04-01", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2035–2035", "year_low": 2035, "year_high": 2035, "year_mid": 2035, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Superintelligent AI", "prediction_scope": "Superintelligent AI", "source_type": "secondary interview report", "source_quality": "secondary interview report", "source_title": "Business Insider summary of CBS interview", "source_url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-godfather-geoffrey-hinton-superintelligence-risk-takeover-2025-4", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "concerned optimist about capability", "confidence": "", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Risk/capability forecast; exact transcript needed.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "geoffrey-hinton-2025-superintelligence-within-10-years" }, { "person": "Yoshua Bengio", "role": "Professor / Turing Award winner", "organization": "Mila / International AI Safety Report chair", "expert_type": "AI pioneer / safety researcher", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Bengio-chaired AI safety work emphasizes rapid capability growth and risks but does not offer a clean AGI date.", "claim_summary": "Bengio-chaired AI safety work emphasizes rapid capability growth and risks but does not offer a clean AGI date.", "date_said": "2026-02-03", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "No explicit AGI date", "prediction_scope": "No explicit AGI date", "source_type": "news report on report", "source_quality": "news report on report", "source_title": "The Guardian on 2026 International AI Safety Report", "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/feb/03/deepfakes-ai-companions-artificial-intelligence-safety-report", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "caution / safety", "confidence": "", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "include_in_average": false, "notes": "Include as safety/ethics context rather than date prediction.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "yoshua-bengio-2026-safety-report-no-date" }, { "person": "Roman Yampolskiy", "role": "AI safety researcher", "organization": "University of Louisville", "expert_type": "AI safety / critic", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Yampolskiy warned of potential massive job loss by 2030 from AI surpassing humans across fields.", "claim_summary": "Yampolskiy warned of potential massive job loss by 2030 from AI surpassing humans across fields.", "date_said": "2025-09-01", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "2030–2030", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Automation impact", "prediction_scope": "Automation impact", "source_type": "secondary interview report", "source_quality": "secondary interview report", "source_title": "Windows Central interview summary", "source_url": "https://www.windowscentral.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-expert-warns-99-percent-job-loss-by-2030", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "catastrophic risk warning", "confidence": "", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "include_in_average": false, "notes": "Job automation/risk prediction, not strict AGI.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "roman-yampolskiy-2030-job-loss" }, { "person": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "role": "AI safety researcher / forecaster", "organization": "AI 2027 project / former OpenAI", "expert_type": "Forecaster / AI safety", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Kokotajlo's AI 2027 scenario placed fully autonomous coding around 2027.", "claim_summary": "Kokotajlo's AI 2027 scenario placed fully autonomous coding around 2027.", "date_said": "2026-01-06", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2027–2027", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2027, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Autonomous coding / AI acceleration", "prediction_scope": "Autonomous coding / AI acceleration", "source_type": "secondary", "source_quality": "secondary", "source_title": "The Guardian summary of AI 2027 scenario", "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jan/06/leading-ai-expert-delays-timeline-possible-destruction-humanity", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "fast-takeoff risk", "confidence": "", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "include_in_average": false, "notes": "Scenario forecast, not direct AGI date.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "daniel-kokotajlo-ai-2027-original" }, { "person": "Daniel Kokotajlo", "role": "AI safety researcher / forecaster", "organization": "AI 2027 project / former OpenAI", "expert_type": "Forecaster / AI safety", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Kokotajlo and team reportedly shifted superintelligence timeline toward 2034 in an update.", "claim_summary": "Kokotajlo and team reportedly shifted superintelligence timeline toward 2034 in an update.", "date_said": "2026-01-06", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2034–2034", "year_low": 2034, "year_high": 2034, "year_mid": 2034, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Superintelligence", "prediction_scope": "Superintelligence", "source_type": "secondary", "source_quality": "secondary", "source_title": "The Guardian", "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jan/06/leading-ai-expert-delays-timeline-possible-destruction-humanity", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "revised slower", "confidence": "", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Track revision history as valuable dashboard feature.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "daniel-kokotajlo-2034-revision" }, { "person": "AI researchers survey aggregate", "role": "2,778 surveyed AI researchers", "organization": "AI Impacts / ESPAI 2023", "expert_type": "Aggregate expert survey", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "The 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI gave a 50% aggregate forecast for HLMI by 2047.", "claim_summary": "The 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI gave a 50% aggregate forecast for HLMI by 2047.", "date_said": "2024-01-29", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2047–2047", "year_low": 2047, "year_high": 2047, "year_mid": 2047, "year_category": "single", "concept": "HLMI", "prediction_scope": "HLMI", "source_type": "survey / primary analysis", "source_quality": "survey / primary analysis", "source_title": "AI Impacts 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI", "source_url": "https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai", "verified_level": "high", "stance_category": "aggregate", "confidence": "", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Aggregate, not an individual quote. Definition: machines can do every task better and cheaper than humans.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "ai-impacts-2023-hlmi-2047" }, { "person": "AI researchers survey aggregate", "role": "2,778 surveyed AI researchers", "organization": "AI Impacts / ESPAI 2023", "expert_type": "Aggregate expert survey", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "The survey implied a 10% chance of HLMI by 2027.", "claim_summary": "The survey implied a 10% chance of HLMI by 2027.", "date_said": "2024-01-19", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2027–2027", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2027, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "single", "concept": "HLMI 10% probability", "prediction_scope": "HLMI 10% probability", "source_type": "news summary of survey", "source_quality": "news summary of survey", "source_title": "Time summary of AI Impacts survey", "source_url": "https://time.com/6556168/when-ai-outsmart-humans/", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "aggregate", "confidence": "", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "include_in_average": false, "notes": "Probability point, not median.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "ai-impacts-2023-hlmi-10pct-2027" }, { "person": "AI researchers survey aggregate", "role": "Survey aggregate", "organization": "AI Impacts / ESPAI 2023", "expert_type": "Aggregate expert survey", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "The 2023 survey aggregate forecast gave a 50% chance of full automation of labor by 2116.", "claim_summary": "The 2023 survey aggregate forecast gave a 50% chance of full automation of labor by 2116.", "date_said": "2024-01-29", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2116–2116", "year_low": 2116, "year_high": 2116, "year_mid": 2116, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Full automation of labor", "prediction_scope": "Full automation of labor", "source_type": "survey / primary analysis", "source_quality": "survey / primary analysis", "source_title": "AI Impacts 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI", "source_url": "https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai", "verified_level": "high", "stance_category": "aggregate / slower", "confidence": "", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "include_in_average": false, "notes": "Much stricter than AGI/HLMI; avoid mixing into AGI average.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "ai-impacts-2023-faol-2116" }, { "person": "Metaculus community", "role": "Forecasting community", "organization": "Metaculus", "expert_type": "Prediction market / forecasting community", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Metaculus aggregate reported median around late 2027 / early 2028 for first general AI announcement, depending on snapshot.", "claim_summary": "Metaculus aggregate reported median around late 2027 / early 2028 for first general AI announcement, depending on snapshot.", "date_said": "2026-01-01", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2027–2028", "year_low": 2027, "year_high": 2028, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "range", "concept": "First general AI announced", "prediction_scope": "First general AI announced", "source_type": "secondary aggregation of forecasting market", "source_quality": "secondary aggregation of forecasting market", "source_title": "Longterm Wiki snapshot / Metaculus aggregate", "source_url": "https://www.longtermwiki.com/wiki/agi-timeline", "verified_level": "low", "stance_category": "aggregate forecast", "confidence": "", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Use direct Metaculus export/API for production.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "metaculus-first-general-ai-2027-11" }, { "person": "Metaculus community", "role": "Forecasting community", "organization": "Metaculus", "expert_type": "Prediction market / forecasting community", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Metaculus-related snapshot listed weakly general AI around 2033.", "claim_summary": "Metaculus-related snapshot listed weakly general AI around 2033.", "date_said": "2026-01-01", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2033–2033", "year_low": 2033, "year_high": 2033, "year_mid": 2033, "year_category": "single", "concept": "Weakly general AI", "prediction_scope": "Weakly general AI", "source_type": "secondary aggregation", "source_quality": "secondary aggregation", "source_title": "Longterm Wiki snapshot / Metaculus aggregate", "source_url": "https://www.longtermwiki.com/wiki/agi-timeline", "verified_level": "low", "stance_category": "aggregate forecast", "confidence": "", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Definition-sensitive and should be fetched live before final dashboard.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "metaculus-weakly-general-ai-2033" }, { "person": "Samotsvety superforecasters", "role": "Forecasting group", "organization": "Samotsvety", "expert_type": "Superforecasters", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Samotsvety were summarized as estimating roughly 28% probability of AGI by 2030.", "claim_summary": "Samotsvety were summarized as estimating roughly 28% probability of AGI by 2030.", "date_said": "2026-03-01", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2030–2030", "year_low": 2030, "year_high": 2030, "year_mid": 2030, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI by 2030 probability", "prediction_scope": "AGI by 2030 probability", "source_type": "secondary synthesis", "source_quality": "secondary synthesis", "source_title": "Nevo synthesis", "source_url": "https://nevo.systems/blogs/nevo-journal/agi-timeline-predictions", "verified_level": "low", "stance_category": "aggregate forecast / conservative", "confidence": "", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "include_in_average": false, "notes": "Probability row, not median date.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "samotsvety-agi-by-2030-28pct" }, { "person": "AI researcher surveys aggregate", "role": "Survey aggregate", "organization": "Various surveys", "expert_type": "Aggregate expert survey", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Recent syntheses summarize AI researcher surveys as having median human-level machine intelligence around 2040-2047, depending on survey and definition.", "claim_summary": "Recent syntheses summarize AI researcher surveys as having median human-level machine intelligence around 2040-2047, depending on survey and definition.", "date_said": "2026-03-01", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2040–2040", "year_low": 2040, "year_high": 2040, "year_mid": 2040, "year_category": "single", "concept": "HLMI / AGI broad survey", "prediction_scope": "HLMI / AGI broad survey", "source_type": "secondary synthesis", "source_quality": "secondary synthesis", "source_title": "Nevo synthesis + AI Impacts survey context", "source_url": "https://nevo.systems/blogs/nevo-journal/agi-timeline-predictions", "verified_level": "low", "stance_category": "aggregate", "confidence": "", "tier": "T5", "tier_full": "T5", "category": "survey-aggregate", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Prefer AI Impacts 2047 as primary aggregate.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "ai-researchers-2040-nevo" }, { "person": "LumiChats synthesis", "role": "Article synthesis", "organization": "LumiChats", "expert_type": "Secondary synthesis", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Synthesis claims frontier CEOs cluster 2026-2030 while broader forecasters and experts are later.", "claim_summary": "Synthesis claims frontier CEOs cluster 2026-2030 while broader forecasters and experts are later.", "date_said": "2026-03-14", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2026–2033", "year_low": 2026, "year_high": 2033, "year_mid": 2029, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI timeline synthesis", "prediction_scope": "AGI timeline synthesis", "source_type": "secondary synthesis", "source_quality": "secondary synthesis", "source_title": "LumiChats AGI timeline article", "source_url": "https://www.lumichats.com/blog/agi-timeline-2026-expert-predictions-what-it-means", "verified_level": "low", "stance_category": "mixed", "confidence": "", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "include_in_average": false, "notes": "Use for lead discovery only, not final authoritative row.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "lumi-2026-expert-prediction-map" }, { "person": "Nevo synthesis", "role": "Article synthesis", "organization": "Nevo", "expert_type": "Secondary synthesis", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Synthesis maps optimists, moderates, skeptics, Metaculus, Samotsvety, and surveys.", "claim_summary": "Synthesis maps optimists, moderates, skeptics, Metaculus, Samotsvety, and surveys.", "date_said": "2026-03-01", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2025–2040", "year_low": 2025, "year_high": 2040, "year_mid": 2032, "year_category": "range", "concept": "AGI timeline synthesis", "prediction_scope": "AGI timeline synthesis", "source_type": "secondary synthesis", "source_quality": "secondary synthesis", "source_title": "Nevo AGI timeline article", "source_url": "https://nevo.systems/blogs/nevo-journal/agi-timeline-predictions", "verified_level": "low", "stance_category": "mixed", "confidence": "", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "include_in_average": false, "notes": "Good source-discovery page, but not enough by itself for portfolio-grade proof.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "nevo-2026-expert-map" }, { "person": "Kallina synthesis", "role": "Article synthesis", "organization": "Kallina AI", "expert_type": "Secondary synthesis", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Synthesis groups CEO predictions around 2026-2028 and Metaculus around late 2027.", "claim_summary": "Synthesis groups CEO predictions around 2026-2028 and Metaculus around late 2027.", "date_said": "2026-04-01", "year_said": 2026, "predicted_year_raw": "2026–2028", "year_low": 2026, "year_high": 2028, "year_mid": 2027, "year_category": "range", "concept": "CEO consensus", "prediction_scope": "CEO consensus", "source_type": "secondary synthesis", "source_quality": "secondary synthesis", "source_title": "Kallina AGI timeline page", "source_url": "https://kallina.info/research/agi-timeline", "verified_level": "low", "stance_category": "optimist synthesis", "confidence": "", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "include_in_average": false, "notes": "Use for lead discovery only; verify underlying primary sources.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "kallina-2026-ceo-consensus" }, { "person": "Axios analysis", "role": "Journalistic analysis", "organization": "Axios", "expert_type": "Media analysis", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Axios critiques recurring tech-industry promises that AGI is only a few years away despite reliability and reasoning gaps.", "claim_summary": "Axios critiques recurring tech-industry promises that AGI is only a few years away despite reliability and reasoning gaps.", "date_said": "2025-02-20", "year_said": 2025, "predicted_year_raw": "unspecified", "year_low": null, "year_high": null, "year_mid": null, "year_category": "unspecified", "concept": "AGI promise critique", "prediction_scope": "AGI promise critique", "source_type": "analysis", "source_quality": "analysis", "source_title": "Axios", "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2025/02/20/ai-agi-timeline-promises-openai-anthropic-deepmind", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "skeptical / meta-analysis", "confidence": "", "tier": "T4", "tier_full": "T4", "category": "public-intellectual", "include_in_average": false, "notes": "Useful for dashboard annotation and caveats.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "axios-2025-ai-nirvana-few-years" }, { "person": "Superforecasters aggregate", "role": "Forecasting comparison", "organization": "Time report / unspecified superforecasters", "expert_type": "Superforecasters", "verbatim": false, "quote_text": "Time reported superforecasters estimating a much later timeline, around 2070, compared with AI company leaders.", "claim_summary": "Time reported superforecasters estimating a much later timeline, around 2070, compared with AI company leaders.", "date_said": "2024-01-19", "year_said": 2024, "predicted_year_raw": "2070–2070", "year_low": 2070, "year_high": 2070, "year_mid": 2070, "year_category": "single", "concept": "AGI / HLMI", "prediction_scope": "AGI / HLMI", "source_type": "news report", "source_quality": "news report", "source_title": "Time", "source_url": "https://time.com/6556168/when-ai-outsmart-humans/", "verified_level": "medium", "stance_category": "conservative forecast", "confidence": "", "tier": "T2", "tier_full": "T2", "category": "academic", "include_in_average": true, "notes": "Use carefully; identify exact forecasting study behind the number.", "source_batch": "v4-batch3", "prediction_type": "agi_year", "csv_id": "time-2024-superforecasters-2070" } ] }