{
  "meta": {
    "version": 1,
    "row_count": 91,
    "generated_at": "2026-05-04",
    "source": "Primary sources: NBER, FRB, CBO, OMB, OECD, BIS, IMF, MGI, PwC, Goldman Sachs, academic presses, primary press.",
    "schema": {
      "id": "stable identifier",
      "predictor": "name",
      "predictor_type": "academic|central-bank|government|consultancy|sell-side|tech-industry|journalist|think-tank",
      "institution": "affiliation at time of statement",
      "category": "general-it-paradox|ai-aggregate-tfp|ai-labor-productivity|ai-sector-specific|ai-gdp-level|wage-effects|agi-singularity",
      "stance": "bullish|bearish|neutral",
      "year_said": "integer year",
      "year_targeted": "integer year or null",
      "quote": "verbatim or close paraphrase",
      "context": "source and occasion",
      "source_url": "primary source URL",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth|tfp-growth|mfp-growth|gdp-level|gdp-growth|solow-residual|sector-output|wage-growth|unemployment-rate|general-vague|ai-aggregate-tfp|ai-labor-productivity|ai-gdp-level|ai-sector-specific",
      "magnitude_predicted": "basis points or percent, null if qualitative",
      "outcome": "did-not-happen|did-not-happen-yet|fulfilled-with-delay|fulfilled-on-time|partially-fulfilled|pending|unclear|anchor-quote",
      "outcome_note": "interpretive note",
      "verification_confidence": "high|medium|low",
      "tags": "array of strings"
    }
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "id": "solow-1987",
      "predictor": "Robert Solow",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "MIT",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "neutral",
      "year_said": 1987,
      "year_targeted": null,
      "quote": "You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.",
      "context": "Review of Manuel Castells' work, NYRB, July 1987.",
      "source_url": "https://www.nybooks.com/articles/1987/07/16/the-economics-of-the-information-revolution/",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "anchor-quote",
      "outcome_note": "The foundational paradox statement. Resolved partially 1995-2004, returned 2004-2019.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "solow-paradox",
        "anchor"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "drucker-1978",
      "predictor": "Peter Drucker",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "Claremont",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 1978,
      "year_targeted": 1985,
      "quote": "The coming redesign of work will produce quantum jumps in productivity.",
      "context": "HBR article on information work and productivity.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "general-vague",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Productivity growth remained subdued through the 1980s.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "pre-paradox"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "bell-1979",
      "predictor": "Daniel Bell",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "Harvard",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 1979,
      "year_targeted": 1985,
      "quote": "The post-industrial society will see services productivity rise through information technology.",
      "context": "Introduction to paperback edition of The Coming of Post-Industrial Society.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "general-vague",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Service-sector productivity remained stubbornly low.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "pre-paradox"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "nocera-1986",
      "predictor": "Joseph Nocera",
      "predictor_type": "journalist",
      "institution": "Texas Monthly",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 1986,
      "year_targeted": 1990,
      "quote": "How IT will change your life and raise productivity across the economy.",
      "context": "Texas Monthly cover story on the personal computer revolution.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "general-vague",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "The productivity boost did not arrive by 1990.",
      "verification_confidence": "low",
      "tags": [
        "pre-paradox"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "roach-1987",
      "predictor": "Stephen Roach",
      "predictor_type": "sell-side",
      "institution": "Morgan Stanley",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 1987,
      "year_targeted": 1992,
      "quote": "White-collar productivity growth has stalled despite massive IT investment.",
      "context": "Morgan Stanley research note on service-sector productivity.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Productivity remained flat through 1992.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "original-paradox"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "brynjolfsson-1993",
      "predictor": "Erik Brynjolfsson",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "MIT",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 1993,
      "year_targeted": 1998,
      "quote": "The productivity paradox of information technology: computers are everywhere but productivity growth has slowed.",
      "context": "Communications of the ACM, December 1993. The academic framing of the paradox.",
      "source_url": "https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/163298.163309",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "fulfilled-with-delay",
      "outcome_note": "Productivity acceleration began 1995-1996, roughly 2-3 years after the target.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "original-paradox",
        "right-but-late"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "roach-1991",
      "predictor": "Stephen Roach",
      "predictor_type": "sell-side",
      "institution": "Morgan Stanley",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 1991,
      "year_targeted": 1995,
      "quote": "No productivity boom on the horizon from information technology.",
      "context": "Morgan Stanley research and congressional testimony.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Productivity did boom starting 1995, shortly after the target year.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "original-paradox"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "gordon-1993",
      "predictor": "Robert Gordon",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "Northwestern",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 1993,
      "year_targeted": 2000,
      "quote": "IT is unlikely to raise productivity growth permanently above the 1973-1990 baseline.",
      "context": "NBER Working Paper 4549, measuring aggregate productivity consequences of IT.",
      "source_url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w4549",
      "metric_predicted": "tfp-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "partially-fulfilled",
      "outcome_note": "IT did raise productivity 1995-2004, but the effect proved temporary rather than permanent.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "original-paradox"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cbo-1993",
      "predictor": "CBO",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "US Congress",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 1993,
      "year_targeted": 2000,
      "quote": "Long-run labor productivity growth assumption embedded in budget projections.",
      "context": "CBO Economic and Budget Outlook, 1993. Assumed 1.3% labor productivity growth.",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/11932",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": 130,
      "outcome": "fulfilled-with-delay",
      "outcome_note": "1.3% ALP growth achieved by roughly 2002.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "original-paradox",
        "right-but-late"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "omb-1994",
      "predictor": "OMB",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "White House",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 1994,
      "year_targeted": 2000,
      "quote": "Economic assumptions for the FY1996 budget include accelerating productivity growth.",
      "context": "FY1996 Budget, Economic Assumptions chapter. Embedded 1.5% productivity growth assumption.",
      "source_url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": 150,
      "outcome": "fulfilled-with-delay",
      "outcome_note": "Productivity acceleration arrived ~2002.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "original-paradox",
        "right-but-late"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "roach-1992",
      "predictor": "Stephen Roach",
      "predictor_type": "sell-side",
      "institution": "Morgan Stanley",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 1992,
      "year_targeted": 1996,
      "quote": "The hollow ring of the productivity revival. IT spending does not translate to output.",
      "context": "Morgan Stanley research note, 1992.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Revival began 1995, just after target.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "original-paradox"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "gates-1994",
      "predictor": "Bill Gates",
      "predictor_type": "tech-industry",
      "institution": "Microsoft",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 1994,
      "year_targeted": 1998,
      "quote": "The personal computer will transform office productivity within the next few years.",
      "context": "The Road Ahead, 1995 (written 1994). Predicted near-term productivity gains from PC penetration.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "fulfilled-with-delay",
      "outcome_note": "PC productivity gains arrived ~2000, 2 years after target.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "original-paradox",
        "right-but-late"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "grove-1994",
      "predictor": "Andy Grove",
      "predictor_type": "tech-industry",
      "institution": "Intel",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 1994,
      "year_targeted": 2000,
      "quote": "The information revolution will fundamentally reshape business productivity by the turn of the century.",
      "context": "Only the Paranoid Survive, 1996 (written 1994-95). Implied productivity transformation by 2000.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "fulfilled-with-delay",
      "outcome_note": "Productivity transformation arrived ~2000-2002.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "original-paradox",
        "right-but-late"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "oliner-1994",
      "predictor": "Stephen Oliner",
      "predictor_type": "central-bank",
      "institution": "Federal Reserve",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 1994,
      "year_targeted": 2000,
      "quote": "Computers and output growth revisited: the productivity contribution of IT will become visible.",
      "context": "FRB research with Daniel Sichel, 1994.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "tfp-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "fulfilled-with-delay",
      "outcome_note": "Contribution visible by 1999-2000.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "original-paradox",
        "right-but-late"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "siegel-1994",
      "predictor": "Jeremy Siegel",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "Wharton",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 1994,
      "year_targeted": 1998,
      "quote": "IT-driven productivity revival by the late 1990s will validate equity valuations.",
      "context": "Stocks for the Long Run, 1994. Predicted IT would raise productivity growth.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "gdp-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "fulfilled-with-delay",
      "outcome_note": "Revival began 1995, full by 1998-2000.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "original-paradox",
        "right-but-late"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cbo-1995",
      "predictor": "CBO",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "US Congress",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 1995,
      "year_targeted": 2003,
      "quote": "Long-run budget outlook assumes productivity growth of 1.25% annually.",
      "context": "CBO Economic and Budget Outlook, 1995.",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/11933",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": 125,
      "outcome": "fulfilled-with-delay",
      "outcome_note": "1.25% achieved by roughly 2002.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "original-paradox",
        "right-but-late"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "gordon-1995",
      "predictor": "Robert Gordon",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "Northwestern",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 1995,
      "year_targeted": 2000,
      "quote": "Is there a tradeoff between unemployment and productivity growth? IT is unlikely to break the slowdown.",
      "context": "NBER, 1995. Skepticism about IT's productivity ceiling.",
      "source_url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w5261",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "partially-fulfilled",
      "outcome_note": "IT did boost productivity 1995-2004, but Gordon's broader skepticism about permanence was vindicated post-2004.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "original-paradox"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "strassmann-1990",
      "predictor": "Paul Strassmann",
      "predictor_type": "consultancy",
      "institution": "Xerox",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 1990,
      "year_targeted": 1995,
      "quote": "The business value of computers: IT spending does not correlate with productivity gains.",
      "context": "The Business Value of Computers, 1990.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Productivity did not rise by 1995; the boom came slightly later.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "original-paradox"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "greenspan-1995",
      "predictor": "Alan Greenspan",
      "predictor_type": "central-bank",
      "institution": "Federal Reserve",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 1995,
      "year_targeted": 2005,
      "quote": "We are witnessing a pickup in productivity that appears to have roots in technological change.",
      "context": "Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, July 1995.",
      "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/1995/july/testimony.htm",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "fulfilled-on-time",
      "outcome_note": "Productivity acceleration was visible almost immediately and persisted through 2004.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "boom",
        "right-but-late"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "greenspan-1996",
      "predictor": "Alan Greenspan",
      "predictor_type": "central-bank",
      "institution": "Federal Reserve",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 1996,
      "year_targeted": 2005,
      "quote": "The pickup in productivity growth appears to be more than transitory.",
      "context": "Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, February 1996.",
      "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/1996/february/testimony.htm",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "fulfilled-on-time",
      "outcome_note": "Continued optimism vindicated through 2004.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "boom",
        "right-but-late"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "jorgenson-2000",
      "predictor": "Dale Jorgenson",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "Harvard",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2000,
      "year_targeted": 2010,
      "quote": "Raising the speed limit: ICT will continue to contribute to productivity growth through the decade.",
      "context": "Jorgenson & Stiroh, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2000.",
      "source_url": "https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/raising-the-speed-limit/",
      "metric_predicted": "tfp-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "ICT contribution faded after 2004; did not persist to 2010.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "boom"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "stiroh-2001",
      "predictor": "Kevin Stiroh",
      "predictor_type": "central-bank",
      "institution": "FRBNY",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2001,
      "year_targeted": 2008,
      "quote": "Information technology and the U.S. productivity revival: the gains are structural and will persist.",
      "context": "FRBNY Economic Policy Review, 2001.",
      "source_url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/epr/01v07n1/0105stir.pdf",
      "metric_predicted": "tfp-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Gains proved temporary; productivity growth slowed after 2004.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "boom"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "brynjolfsson-hitt-2000",
      "predictor": "Brynjolfsson & Hitt",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "MIT / Penn",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2000,
      "year_targeted": 2005,
      "quote": "Beyond computation: information technology, organizational transformation and business performance.",
      "context": "Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2000. Productivity returns to IT visible by mid-2000s.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "fulfilled-with-delay",
      "outcome_note": "Productivity returns were visible by early 2000s but did not persist to 2005.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "boom",
        "right-but-late"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cea-1996",
      "predictor": "CEA / ERP",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "White House",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 1996,
      "year_targeted": 2003,
      "quote": "Economic Report of the President assumes 1.5% labor productivity growth.",
      "context": "ERP 1996, Chapter 3.",
      "source_url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/ERP-1996",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": 150,
      "outcome": "fulfilled-with-delay",
      "outcome_note": "1.5% achieved by roughly 2002.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "boom",
        "right-but-late"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cea-1997",
      "predictor": "CEA / ERP",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "White House",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 1997,
      "year_targeted": 2004,
      "quote": "Economic Report of the President: productivity growth will remain elevated.",
      "context": "ERP 1997.",
      "source_url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/ERP-1997",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": 150,
      "outcome": "fulfilled-with-delay",
      "outcome_note": "Elevated growth persisted to 2004.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "boom",
        "right-but-late"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cea-2001",
      "predictor": "CEA / ERP",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "White House",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2001,
      "year_targeted": 2006,
      "quote": "Economic Report assumes IT productivity acceleration will persist post-dot-com.",
      "context": "ERP 2001. Assumed 1.75% labor productivity growth.",
      "source_url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/ERP-2001",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": 175,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Productivity growth slowed after 2004; the 1.75% assumption was not met.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "boom"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "mckinsey-1997",
      "predictor": "McKinsey Global Institute",
      "predictor_type": "consultancy",
      "institution": "McKinsey",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 1997,
      "year_targeted": 2005,
      "quote": "America's computer and software industry will drive measurable productivity gains across sectors.",
      "context": "MGI report, 1997.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "fulfilled-with-delay",
      "outcome_note": "IT productivity gains arrived 1999-2004.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "boom",
        "right-but-late"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "mckinsey-2001",
      "predictor": "McKinsey Global Institute",
      "predictor_type": "consultancy",
      "institution": "McKinsey",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2001,
      "year_targeted": 2006,
      "quote": "US productivity growth 1995-2000: the role of IT and the outlook for continued gains.",
      "context": "MGI report, 2001. Predicted continued IT-driven productivity gains.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Gains stalled after 2004.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "boom"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "oliner-2000",
      "predictor": "Oliner & Sichel",
      "predictor_type": "central-bank",
      "institution": "Federal Reserve",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2000,
      "year_targeted": 2010,
      "quote": "The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: ICT contribution will persist.",
      "context": "FRB research, 2000.",
      "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2000/200044/200044pap.pdf",
      "metric_predicted": "tfp-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "ICT contribution faded after 2004.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "boom"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "whelan-2000",
      "predictor": "Karl Whelan",
      "predictor_type": "central-bank",
      "institution": "Federal Reserve",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2000,
      "year_targeted": 2007,
      "quote": "Computers, obsolescence, and productivity: the IT contribution is structural.",
      "context": "FRB research, 2000.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Structural contribution not sustained past 2004.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "boom"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "gordon-1999",
      "predictor": "Robert Gordon",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "Northwestern",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 1999,
      "year_targeted": 2005,
      "quote": "Has the 'New Economy' rendered the productivity slowdown obsolete? No. The IT boom is temporary.",
      "context": "NBER, 1999. Argued the IT productivity boom was temporary.",
      "source_url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w7034",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Gordon was wrong about 1999-2004 but vindicated post-2004.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "boom"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "roach-1998",
      "predictor": "Stephen Roach",
      "predictor_type": "sell-side",
      "institution": "Morgan Stanley",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 1998,
      "year_targeted": 2002,
      "quote": "No productivity boom on the horizon from the internet.",
      "context": "Morgan Stanley research, 1998.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Productivity boom was underway by 1998-1999.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "boom"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "triplett-1999",
      "predictor": "Jack Triplett",
      "predictor_type": "think-tank",
      "institution": "Brookings",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "neutral",
      "year_said": 1999,
      "year_targeted": 2005,
      "quote": "Productivity in the services sector: cautious optimism that measurement improvements will reveal gains.",
      "context": "Brookings, 1999. Cautious optimism.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "fulfilled-on-time",
      "outcome_note": "Service-sector productivity gains were visible by early 2000s.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "boom",
        "right-but-late"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "nordhaus-1997",
      "predictor": "William Nordhaus",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "Yale",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 1997,
      "year_targeted": 2007,
      "quote": "Do real-output and real-wage measures capture reality? Price-measurement gains will boost measured productivity.",
      "context": "NBER, 1997.",
      "source_url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w6658",
      "metric_predicted": "tfp-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Price-measurement gains were real but smaller than projected; TFP slowed after 2004.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "boom"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "gordon-2012",
      "predictor": "Robert Gordon",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "Northwestern",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 2012,
      "year_targeted": 2020,
      "quote": "Is U.S. economic growth over? The death of innovation, the end of growth.",
      "context": "NBER WP 19895, 2012. Foundational pessimist text.",
      "source_url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w19895",
      "metric_predicted": "tfp-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Gordon's stagnation thesis is debated; productivity remained low but AI may yet change the trajectory.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cowen-2011",
      "predictor": "Tyler Cowen",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "GMU",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 2011,
      "year_targeted": 2018,
      "quote": "The great stagnation: how America ate all the low-hanging fruit and got caught in a technological plateau.",
      "context": "The Great Stagnation, 2011.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "tfp-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Stagnation persisted through 2018; median income stagnation was real.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "brynjolfsson-mcafee-2011",
      "predictor": "Brynjolfsson & McAfee",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "MIT",
      "category": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2011,
      "year_targeted": 2016,
      "quote": "Race Against the Machine: digital technologies will drive imminent productivity acceleration.",
      "context": "Race Against the Machine, 2011.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Productivity acceleration did not arrive by 2016.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "brynjolfsson-mcafee-2014",
      "predictor": "Brynjolfsson & McAfee",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "MIT",
      "category": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2014,
      "year_targeted": 2020,
      "quote": "The Second Machine Age: the productivity boom from automation will arrive by 2020.",
      "context": "The Second Machine Age, 2014.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Productivity boom did not arrive by 2020; COVID-19 created volatility but no structural shift.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "fed-wp-2005",
      "predictor": "John Fernald",
      "predictor_type": "central-bank",
      "institution": "FRBSF",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2005,
      "year_targeted": 2012,
      "quote": "The outlook for U.S. productivity growth: IT investment maturity will restore gains.",
      "context": "FRBSF WP 2005-16, with Shalini Ramnath.",
      "source_url": "https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2005/16/",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Productivity did not recover by 2012.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "fed-wp-2007",
      "predictor": "John Fernald",
      "predictor_type": "central-bank",
      "institution": "FRBSF",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2007,
      "year_targeted": 2015,
      "quote": "Trend breaks, long-run restrictions, and productivity recovery.",
      "context": "FRBSF research, 2007.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "No recovery by 2015.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cbo-2005",
      "predictor": "CBO",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "US Congress",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2005,
      "year_targeted": 2012,
      "quote": "Long-term budget outlook assumes 1.1% labor productivity growth.",
      "context": "CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook, 2005.",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/17697",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": 110,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "1.1% not achieved by 2012; actual growth was lower.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cbo-2010",
      "predictor": "CBO",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "US Congress",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2010,
      "year_targeted": 2017,
      "quote": "Long-term budget outlook: post-crisis recovery will restore 1.3% productivity growth.",
      "context": "CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook, 2010.",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/21546",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": 130,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "1.3% not achieved by 2017.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "omb-2007",
      "predictor": "OMB",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "White House",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2007,
      "year_targeted": 2014,
      "quote": "FY2008 budget economic assumptions: 1.4% productivity growth.",
      "context": "FY2008 Budget, Economic Assumptions.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": 140,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "1.4% not achieved.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "summers-2014",
      "predictor": "Larry Summers",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "Harvard",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 2014,
      "year_targeted": 2020,
      "quote": "U.S. economic prospects: secular stagnation and the difficulty of restoring rapid growth.",
      "context": "IMF speech, 2014. Secular stagnation framework.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "gdp-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Growth remained subdued through 2020.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "gordon-2004",
      "predictor": "Robert Gordon",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "Northwestern",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 2004,
      "year_targeted": 2012,
      "quote": "Why was Europe left at the station when America's productivity locomotive departed? The IT effect is transitory.",
      "context": "NBER, 2004.",
      "source_url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w10661",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Europe did not catch up; US productivity also slowed after 2004.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "fernald-2014",
      "predictor": "John Fernald",
      "predictor_type": "central-bank",
      "institution": "FRBSF",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 2014,
      "year_targeted": 2018,
      "quote": "Productivity and potential output before, during, and after the Great Recession: the slowdown is structural.",
      "context": "FRBSF WP 2014-15.",
      "source_url": "https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2014/15/",
      "metric_predicted": "tfp-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "No recovery by 2018.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "krusell-2011",
      "predictor": "Per Krusell",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "IIES Stockholm",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 2011,
      "year_targeted": 2018,
      "quote": "The GDP paradox: growth effects of IT have been overestimated.",
      "context": "Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2011.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "tfp-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "IT growth effects remained modest.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "bloom-2013",
      "predictor": "Nicholas Bloom",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "Stanford",
      "category": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 2013,
      "year_targeted": 2020,
      "quote": "Are ideas getting harder to find? Research productivity is declining across the economy.",
      "context": "NBER WP 23782 (draft 2013). Declining research productivity thesis.",
      "source_url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w23782",
      "metric_predicted": "tfp-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Research productivity thesis holds; TFP remained low through 2020.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "pwc-2008",
      "predictor": "PwC",
      "predictor_type": "consultancy",
      "institution": "PwC",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2008,
      "year_targeted": 2015,
      "quote": "The business value of IT: productivity gains from technology investment will materialize by 2015.",
      "context": "PwC report, 2008.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "gdp-level",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "No material productivity gains by 2015.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "mckinsey-2008",
      "predictor": "McKinsey Global Institute",
      "predictor_type": "consultancy",
      "institution": "McKinsey",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2008,
      "year_targeted": 2015,
      "quote": "How to compete and grow: a sector guide to productivity. IT will drive the next wave.",
      "context": "MGI report, 2008.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Next wave did not arrive by 2015.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "jp-morgan-2006",
      "predictor": "JP Morgan",
      "predictor_type": "sell-side",
      "institution": "JP Morgan",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2006,
      "year_targeted": 2012,
      "quote": "IT and productivity: the next wave. Technology investment will restore productivity growth.",
      "context": "JP Morgan Economic Research, 2006.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "No restoration by 2012.",
      "verification_confidence": "low",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "goldman-2005",
      "predictor": "Goldman Sachs",
      "predictor_type": "sell-side",
      "institution": "Goldman Sachs",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2005,
      "year_targeted": 2012,
      "quote": "The productivity dividend: IT investment will pay off in higher productivity growth.",
      "context": "Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper, 2005.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen",
      "outcome_note": "Dividend not realized by 2012.",
      "verification_confidence": "low",
      "tags": [
        "slowdown"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "mckinsey-2017",
      "predictor": "McKinsey Global Institute",
      "predictor_type": "consultancy",
      "institution": "McKinsey",
      "category": "ai-gdp-level",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2017,
      "year_targeted": 2030,
      "quote": "A future that works: AI, automation, employment, and productivity. AI could deliver $13 trillion in additional global economic activity by 2030.",
      "context": "MGI report, 2017.",
      "source_url": "https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/ai-automation-and-the-future-of-work",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-gdp-level",
      "magnitude_predicted": 13000,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Target year 2030 has not arrived.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "mckinsey-2018",
      "predictor": "McKinsey Global Institute",
      "predictor_type": "consultancy",
      "institution": "McKinsey",
      "category": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2018,
      "year_targeted": 2030,
      "quote": "Notes from the AI frontier: modeling the impact of AI on the world economy. Potential 1.4% annual productivity boost.",
      "context": "MGI report, 2018.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "magnitude_predicted": 140,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Target year 2030 has not arrived.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "pwc-2017",
      "predictor": "PwC",
      "predictor_type": "consultancy",
      "institution": "PwC",
      "category": "ai-gdp-level",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2017,
      "year_targeted": 2030,
      "quote": "Sizing the prize: AI could contribute up to $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030.",
      "context": "PwC report, 2017.",
      "source_url": "https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/data-and-analytics/publications/artificial-intelligence-study.html",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-gdp-level",
      "magnitude_predicted": 15700,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Target year 2030 has not arrived.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "pwc-2019",
      "predictor": "PwC",
      "predictor_type": "consultancy",
      "institution": "PwC",
      "category": "ai-gdp-level",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2019,
      "year_targeted": 2030,
      "quote": "AI and productivity: the $15.7 trillion opportunity by 2030.",
      "context": "PwC AI Reports, 2019 update.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-gdp-level",
      "magnitude_predicted": 15700,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Target year 2030 has not arrived.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "goldman-2016",
      "predictor": "Goldman Sachs",
      "predictor_type": "sell-side",
      "institution": "Goldman Sachs",
      "category": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2016,
      "year_targeted": 2025,
      "quote": "The productivity impact of AI: machine learning will raise output per worker.",
      "context": "Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper, 2016.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Some sector-level gains visible by 2025 but aggregate ALP remains modest.",
      "verification_confidence": "low",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "goldman-2020",
      "predictor": "Goldman Sachs",
      "predictor_type": "sell-side",
      "institution": "Goldman Sachs",
      "category": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2020,
      "year_targeted": 2025,
      "quote": "The AI revolution: productivity gains from artificial intelligence will arrive by 2025.",
      "context": "Goldman Sachs research, 2020.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Aggregate gains not yet visible by 2025.",
      "verification_confidence": "low",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "oecd-2018",
      "predictor": "OECD",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "OECD",
      "category": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2018,
      "year_targeted": 2025,
      "quote": "Automation, skills use and training: AI will reshape productivity across OECD economies.",
      "context": "OECD report, 2018.",
      "source_url": "https://www.oecd.org/publications/automation-skills-use-and-training-9789264302470-en.htm",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Aggregate TFP effects not yet visible.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "oecd-2019",
      "predictor": "OECD",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "OECD",
      "category": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2019,
      "year_targeted": 2030,
      "quote": "Artificial Intelligence in Society: AI will drive productivity growth across sectors by 2030.",
      "context": "OECD report, 2019.",
      "source_url": "https://www.oecd.org/publications/artificial-intelligence-in-society-eedfee77-en.htm",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Target year 2030 has not arrived.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "oecd-2021",
      "predictor": "OECD",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "OECD",
      "category": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2021,
      "year_targeted": 2025,
      "quote": "Digital Economy Outlook: AI adoption will raise labor productivity by 2025.",
      "context": "OECD Digital Economy Outlook, 2021.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Aggregate labor productivity effects modest by 2025.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "acemoglu-2017",
      "predictor": "Daron Acemoglu",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "MIT",
      "category": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 2017,
      "year_targeted": 2025,
      "quote": "Robots and jobs: evidence from US labor markets. AI's net effect on employment is negative; TFP gains are limited.",
      "context": "NBER WP 23285, 2017. Quantitative ceilings on AI productivity gains.",
      "source_url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w23285",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Acemoglu's skepticism about rapid TFP gains remains consistent with data through 2025.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "acemoglu-2018",
      "predictor": "Daron Acemoglu",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "MIT",
      "category": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 2018,
      "year_targeted": 2025,
      "quote": "The race between man and machine: implications of technology for growth, factor shares, and employment.",
      "context": "American Economic Review, 2018. Reorganization lags matter.",
      "source_url": "https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20160696",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Aggregate TFP gains remain limited.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "acemoglu-2019",
      "predictor": "Daron Acemoglu",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "MIT",
      "category": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 2019,
      "year_targeted": 2025,
      "quote": "Automation and new tasks: how technology displaces and reinstates labor. Productivity gains are constrained by task restructuring.",
      "context": "Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2019.",
      "source_url": "https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.33.2.3",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Task restructuring lags continue to constrain measured productivity.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "brynjolfsson-2017",
      "predictor": "Erik Brynjolfsson",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "MIT",
      "category": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2017,
      "year_targeted": 2022,
      "quote": "Artificial intelligence and the modern productivity paradox: a clash of expectations and statistics. The J-curve means productivity will return, just delayed by reorganization costs.",
      "context": "NBER WP 24001, 2017. J-curve argument.",
      "source_url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "J-curve delay ongoing; some sector gains visible by 2024 but aggregate ALP remains modest.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "brynjolfsson-2019",
      "predictor": "Erik Brynjolfsson",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "MIT",
      "category": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2019,
      "year_targeted": 2023,
      "quote": "GDP-B: accounting for the value of new and free goods in the digital economy. The productivity gain may already be there; we may not be measuring it.",
      "context": "NBER, 2019. Measurement problem argument.",
      "source_url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w25695",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Measurement gap remains unclosed.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "brynjolfsson-2021",
      "predictor": "Erik Brynjolfsson",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "MIT",
      "category": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2021,
      "year_targeted": 2025,
      "quote": "The Turing trap: the promise and peril of human-like artificial intelligence. Productivity gains are contingent on task redesign, not just technology availability.",
      "context": "Daedalus, 2021.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Task redesign lags continue.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "furman-2016",
      "predictor": "Jason Furman",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "CEA / Harvard",
      "category": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2016,
      "year_targeted": 2025,
      "quote": "Is this time different? The opportunities and challenges of artificial intelligence for productivity.",
      "context": "NBER, 2016. Cautious optimism.",
      "source_url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w22587",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Cautious optimism not yet vindicated in aggregate data.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "furman-2019",
      "predictor": "Jason Furman",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "Harvard",
      "category": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2019,
      "year_targeted": 2025,
      "quote": "AI and the economy: the potential for productivity gains is substantial but not automatic.",
      "context": "NBER, 2019.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Substantial gains not yet automatic.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "summers-2018",
      "predictor": "Larry Summers",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "Harvard",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 2018,
      "year_targeted": 2025,
      "quote": "The age of secular stagnation: what it is and what to do about it. Tech productivity timing remains elusive.",
      "context": "Foreign Affairs, 2018.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "gdp-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Secular stagnation framework still debated.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "autor-2015",
      "predictor": "David Autor",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "MIT",
      "category": "wage-effects",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 2015,
      "year_targeted": 2025,
      "quote": "Why are there still so many jobs? The history and future of workplace automation. Skeptic of rapid automation-driven productivity.",
      "context": "Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2015.",
      "source_url": "https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.29.3.3",
      "metric_predicted": "wage-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Employment remained high but wage growth modest.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "autor-2019",
      "predictor": "David Autor",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "MIT",
      "category": "wage-effects",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 2019,
      "year_targeted": 2025,
      "quote": "The fall of the labor share and the rise of superstar firms. Tech shifts income toward capital, not necessarily productivity.",
      "context": "Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2019.",
      "source_url": "https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/134/2/611/5190057",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Labor share fell but productivity gains remained elusive.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "bis-2018",
      "predictor": "BIS",
      "predictor_type": "central-bank",
      "institution": "BIS",
      "category": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "stance": "neutral",
      "year_said": 2018,
      "year_targeted": 2025,
      "quote": "Annual Economic Report: AI and productivity \u2014 the effects are uncertain and will take time to materialize.",
      "context": "BIS Annual Economic Report, 2018. Chapter on AI and productivity.",
      "source_url": "https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2018e.htm",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "BIS caution consistent with data.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "fernald-2016",
      "predictor": "John Fernald",
      "predictor_type": "central-bank",
      "institution": "FRBSF",
      "category": "general-it-paradox",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 2016,
      "year_targeted": 2022,
      "quote": "The future of U.S. economic growth: the IT boom is over and the new normal is slow.",
      "context": "AER P&P, 2016. With Charles Jones.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "tfp-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "did-not-happen-yet",
      "outcome_note": "Slow growth persisted through 2022.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "ai-prelude"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "goldman-2023",
      "predictor": "Goldman Sachs",
      "predictor_type": "sell-side",
      "institution": "Goldman Sachs",
      "category": "ai-gdp-level",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2023,
      "year_targeted": 2033,
      "quote": "Generative AI could raise global GDP by 7% ($7 trillion) over a 10-year period.",
      "context": "Goldman Sachs, 2023. Specific year targets within the report.",
      "source_url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/generative-ai-could-raise-global-gdp-by-7-percent.html",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-gdp-level",
      "magnitude_predicted": 7000,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Target year 2033 has not arrived.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "chatgpt-era"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "acemoglu-2024",
      "predictor": "Daron Acemoglu",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "MIT",
      "category": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 2024,
      "year_targeted": 2034,
      "quote": "The simple macroeconomics of AI: approximately 0.06% per year TFP gain over 10 years.",
      "context": "NBER WP 32487, 2024. The skeptic's specific number.",
      "source_url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w32487",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "magnitude_predicted": 6,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "10-year horizon extends to 2034.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "chatgpt-era"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "mckinsey-2023",
      "predictor": "McKinsey Global Institute",
      "predictor_type": "consultancy",
      "institution": "McKinsey",
      "category": "ai-gdp-level",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2023,
      "year_targeted": 2040,
      "quote": "The economic potential of generative AI: $4.2 trillion annual productivity impact by 2040.",
      "context": "MGI report, 2023.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-gdp-level",
      "magnitude_predicted": 4200,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Target year 2040 has not arrived.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "chatgpt-era"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "brynjolfsson-2023",
      "predictor": "Erik Brynjolfsson",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "Stanford",
      "category": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2023,
      "year_targeted": 2028,
      "quote": "Generative AI at work: 14% productivity gain in customer service; implied scaling claims for broader economy.",
      "context": "NBER WP 31161, 2023. With Danielle Li and Lindsey Raymond.",
      "source_url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w31161",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "magnitude_predicted": 1400,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Field experiment results are real; scaling to aggregate by 2028 remains unproven.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "chatgpt-era"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "pwc-2025",
      "predictor": "PwC",
      "predictor_type": "consultancy",
      "institution": "PwC",
      "category": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2025,
      "year_targeted": 2030,
      "quote": "AI Jobs Barometer: wage premiums and productivity claims from AI adoption.",
      "context": "PwC AI Jobs Barometer, 2025.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Target year 2030 has not arrived.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "chatgpt-era"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "powell-2023",
      "predictor": "Jerome Powell",
      "predictor_type": "central-bank",
      "institution": "Federal Reserve",
      "category": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "stance": "neutral",
      "year_said": 2023,
      "year_targeted": null,
      "quote": "It is too early to tell whether AI will have a meaningful effect on productivity.",
      "context": "FOMC press conference, July 2023.",
      "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/20230726a.htm",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Powell's caution remains the consensus position.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "chatgpt-era"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "brainard-2023",
      "predictor": "Lael Brainard",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "White House NEC",
      "category": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2023,
      "year_targeted": 2028,
      "quote": "AI productivity gains are expected to materialize within the next five years.",
      "context": "NEC speech, 2023.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Five-year horizon extends to 2028.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "chatgpt-era"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cook-2024",
      "predictor": "Lisa Cook",
      "predictor_type": "central-bank",
      "institution": "Federal Reserve",
      "category": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "stance": "neutral",
      "year_said": 2024,
      "year_targeted": null,
      "quote": "The Fed is monitoring AI for productivity effects but has not observed them in the aggregate data yet.",
      "context": "Speech at Atlanta Fed, 2024.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "No specific target year.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "chatgpt-era"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cbo-2024",
      "predictor": "CBO",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "US Congress",
      "category": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2024,
      "year_targeted": 2034,
      "quote": "Long-term budget outlook assumes ~1.0% labor productivity growth, with a modest AI contribution embedded.",
      "context": "CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook, 2024.",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59689",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": 100,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "10-year projection.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "chatgpt-era"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "cbo-2025",
      "predictor": "CBO",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "US Congress",
      "category": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2025,
      "year_targeted": 2035,
      "quote": "Long-term budget outlook: slightly higher assumption with AI contribution explicit in text.",
      "context": "CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook, 2025.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "labor-productivity-growth",
      "magnitude_predicted": 110,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "10-year projection.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "chatgpt-era"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "anthropic-2025",
      "predictor": "Anthropic",
      "predictor_type": "tech-industry",
      "institution": "Anthropic",
      "category": "ai-sector-specific",
      "stance": "neutral",
      "year_said": 2025,
      "year_targeted": null,
      "quote": "The Anthropic Economic Index reframes the question of when productivity will show up by tracking AI use in the workforce.",
      "context": "Anthropic Economic Index, 2025. Not a prediction but a measurement framework.",
      "source_url": "https://www.anthropic.com/economic-index",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-sector-specific",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Measurement framework, not a dated prediction.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "chatgpt-era"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "oecd-2024",
      "predictor": "OECD",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "OECD",
      "category": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2024,
      "year_targeted": 2030,
      "quote": "OECD AI Outlook: AI will drive productivity growth across member economies by 2030.",
      "context": "OECD AI Outlook, 2024.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Target year 2030 has not arrived.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "chatgpt-era"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "imf-2024",
      "predictor": "IMF",
      "predictor_type": "government",
      "institution": "IMF",
      "category": "ai-gdp-level",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2024,
      "year_targeted": 2030,
      "quote": "AI will boost global productivity and GDP over the medium term.",
      "context": "IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2024.",
      "source_url": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-gdp-level",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Medium-term projection to 2030.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "chatgpt-era"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "altman-2023",
      "predictor": "Sam Altman",
      "predictor_type": "tech-industry",
      "institution": "OpenAI",
      "category": "ai-gdp-level",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2023,
      "year_targeted": 2028,
      "quote": "AI will drive massive productivity gains across the economy by the late 2020s.",
      "context": "Various interviews, 2023.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-gdp-level",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Late 2020s horizon.",
      "verification_confidence": "low",
      "tags": [
        "chatgpt-era"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "nadella-2023",
      "predictor": "Satya Nadella",
      "predictor_type": "tech-industry",
      "institution": "Microsoft",
      "category": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2023,
      "year_targeted": 2028,
      "quote": "Copilot will fundamentally transform knowledge worker productivity within five years.",
      "context": "Multiple interviews and keynotes, 2023.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Five-year horizon to 2028.",
      "verification_confidence": "low",
      "tags": [
        "chatgpt-era"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "gordon-2024",
      "predictor": "Robert Gordon",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "Northwestern",
      "category": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "stance": "bearish",
      "year_said": 2024,
      "year_targeted": 2030,
      "quote": "Why has economic growth slowed? AI will not reverse the secular stagnation.",
      "context": "NBER, 2024.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-aggregate-tfp",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Six-year horizon.",
      "verification_confidence": "high",
      "tags": [
        "chatgpt-era"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "bloom-2024",
      "predictor": "Nicholas Bloom",
      "predictor_type": "academic",
      "institution": "Stanford",
      "category": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "stance": "bullish",
      "year_said": 2024,
      "year_targeted": 2028,
      "quote": "The impact of AI on productivity: early evidence suggests gains are real but concentrated.",
      "context": "Stanford working paper, 2024.",
      "source_url": "",
      "metric_predicted": "ai-labor-productivity",
      "magnitude_predicted": null,
      "outcome": "pending",
      "outcome_note": "Four-year horizon.",
      "verification_confidence": "medium",
      "tags": [
        "chatgpt-era"
      ]
    }
  ]
}